Many believe that the English League Cup, currently called the Carabao Cup, is somewhat pointless in modern English soccer. I can see where such an opinion is coming from, but I completely disagree with it for a couple of reasons.
For a start, it still provides an opportunity for lower-ranked teams to bring joy to their supporters with a deep run. Knocking out a team from the English Premier League is a great source of pride, and the Carabao Cup is the perfect place to do so.
Just take a look at Derby County’s players and supporters after they knocked the famous Manchester United out. Go and tell them that the Carabao Cup doesn’t matter!
But it’s not only about the smaller clubs. The leading teams from England have the chance to keep their squad fresh and give some youngsters the chance to shine and fight for their place in the side.
On top of that, the Carabao Cup is still a trophy at the end of the day, and it comes with a place in the UEFA Europa League.
I think this is more than enough to believe that the competition deserves some attention. Since the draw for the 4th round was just completed this weekend, I think it’s time to take a look at the odds for the outright winner and share my betting picks.
But before I actually move on to the favorites, I would like to explain the logic behind my predictions.
There are a couple of aspects that I always take into account when I place a wager on the potential English Football League Cup winner. Obviously, the quality of each team involved plays a bigger role, so I won’t talk about that specifically.
The other reason is that the Carabao Cup is not a priority for most teams and managers. As a result, the absolute strength of each club is not that important, as most sides will rotate heavily and often will start weird lineups.
With that said, let’s take a closer look at what does matter the most when picking the winner of the Carabao Cup.
A separate draw takes place for each round of the Carabao Cup. This is the reason why we only know for sure what the next games will be.
We can’t predict what will happen after that, but we still have something to work with. Every favorite that has an easier fixture – on paper, that is –is naturally more likely to progress and be one step closer to winning the trophy.
For example, facing a team from a lower division at home is way better than playing away against an opposition from the English Premier League.
This logic is quite obvious, but a lot of people are looking too far ahead in the future and don’t put enough importance on the next match.
Even the mid- and bottom-table teams from the English Premier League rotate a lot in the Carabao Cup. The tough schedule and the fact that this competition is the third or sometimes the fourth most important for each club means we get to see a lot of youngsters and squad players take part.
Naturally, the teams with the best depth have a huge advantage for that reason. The most obvious examples are Liverpool, Spurs, Arsenal, Chelsea, andthe two clubs from Manchester.
A lot of people underestimate the official rules of the Carabao Cup, but they make quite the difference.
Unlike the FA Cup, if you draw a game in the League Cup, there’s no extra time or a replay; you go straight to the penalty shootout.
The weaker teams have a much bigger chance of surprising one of the big boys. Snatching a draw and then keeping their composure in the penalties is enough. The only exception is the final of the Carabao Cup when there’s extra time in case of a tie in the regular 90 minutes.
All teams from the English Premier League rotate in the early rounds of the competition, but that’s not always the case later on. Once the last 8 are here, some clubs will see the Carabao Cup as a great opportunity to actually win a trophy.
This is the reason some managers are inclined to send mixed starting elevens that include at least a couple of their star players. In fact, some do that in earlier rounds, too, as we saw that both Chelsea and Liverpool included some regular starters in the 3rd-round clash of giants.
Even Unai Emery sent his big guns when Arsenal was in trouble against Brentford at home – something Arsene Wenger probably wouldn’t have done before.
Obviously, moves like that show some ambition, and recognizing the teams and managers who are willing to make them is crucial when selecting the Carabao Cup winner.
Now you have a solid idea about the thought process I use when picking the Carabao Cup winner. Since the next match of each team is a crucial part of that, let’s start with the 4th-round draw.
Manchester City vs. Fulham Bournemouth vs. Norwich City Arsenal vs. Blackpool Leicester City vs. Everton or Southampton West Ham vs. Tottenham Middlesbrough vs. Crystal Palace Chelsea vs. Derby County Burton Albion vs. Nottingham ForestAs you can see, the likes of Arsenal, Chelsea, and Manchester City have a rather favorable match. The other favorite, Tottenham, will have to go through a London derby against West Ham to reach the next round.
With that in mind, it’s finally time to take a look at the best soccer betting sites out there and their prices on the Carabao Cup outright winner.
Here are the odds for the four most likely winners of the 2018/19 Carabao Cup.
Let’s now analyze the chances of each of these teams, along with some of the other possible contenders.
It’s hardly a surprise to see Manchester City as the most likely winner, according to the bookies. I think that’s the case in every competition in which Guardiola and his men are playing, probably except the Champions League.
There’s not really any doubt that Manchester City has the best squad in English soccer at the moment. Even if the lineup selected by Guardiola doesn’t always include the best players at the disposal of the Spanish manager, there’s still more than enough quality to beat most teams they’ll face.
This is one of the reasons why Manchester City has won the competition three times in the last five years, including last season when Arsenal was trashed 3-0 in the final at Wembley.
The problem is the price offered by the gambling sites. Despite all of their strength, 3.50 is way too short for my taste. Considering what teams are left in the competition, Manchester City could easily be in a situation where the team has to play two strong opponents before lifting the cup.
Even if we consider the other two rounds, including the current one against Fulham, as won, 3.50 is still not high enough to be worth it. This is why I won’t touch Manchester City and will try to find value elsewhere.
Another team that has a strong claim for the Carabao Cup certainly is Chelsea. The Blues will face Derby County at home in the next round. I don’t think the visitors will have the opportunity for a second big surprise, especially since Chelsea has been performing so well since the start of the season.
The new manager, Maurizio Sarri, deserves a lot of credit, as the side has progressed a lot under him. The defense looks solid, while Eden Hazard is the best player in English soccer right now.
Sarri sent a mixed starting lineup against Liverpool and was not afraid to bring Hazard in when things didn’t go his way. The Belgian responded with an assist and one of the best goals of his career.
Such a move is a clear sign that Sarri would love to win the Carabao Cup, and I’m not surprised. This trophy is often the best chance for new managers to start their careers with silverware, and we’ve seen that a couple of times in the past.
The last example is Jose Mourinho, who won the League Cup in his first season ahead of Manchester United.
I certainly think that Chelsea is one of the teams to watch. The price of 5.00 is probably about fair, though, and I’m not sure if that’s the best betting choice out there. Let’s take a look at the other options for now.
Next in line is another big London club with a new manager. Arsenal is at the start of a new era without Arsene Wenger. His replacement, Unai Emery, had a tough start, losing the two opening games of the season against Manchester City and Chelsea.
Ever since, Arsenal has won seven games in a row, which is a clear sign of improvement. The team has some issues at the back, but all players are working hard, and the formidable front line that includes players like Aubameyang, Ozil, and Lacazette is one of the best in England.
They won’t play much in the Carabao Cup, but Emery showed that he is not afraid of sending the big boys in when the going gets tough.
Lacazette, Aaron Ramsey, and Lucas Torreira were all brought in against Brentford, which is a testimony to the manager’s ambition in the tournament. Plus, Emery’s resume shows that the man certainly knows how to win knockout competitions.
If you add the kind draw that will bring Blackpool in the next round, I think that the 6.00 for Arsenal to win the Carabao Cup is a solid choice.
Tottenham Hotspur is in an interesting position right now. The club desperately needs to win a trophy to show for all the efforts of the manager and the players in the past couple of years. However, the team is ambitious to fight for bigger competitions like the Champions League or the English Premier League.
This puts Mauricio Pochettino in a tough spot. He does lack a bit of squad depth, so playing important members of the side in the Carabao Cup is probably not the smartest choice. At the same time, it’s a good opportunity to win some silverware.
Spurs are a little unlucky if we compare their draw with the games of the other favorites. Facing a strong West Ham team away from home is hardly ideal. In fact, this is the team that knocked Spurs out last year after a famous comeback from 2-0 down.
I can totally see a similar outcome, although not in such a dramatic fashion, this time around, too. Based on that and Pochettino’s lack of ambition in this competition, I would stay away from Spurs.
There are a couple of other teams from the English Premier League still involved in the Carabao Cup. In theory, they could have a shot at the trophy, but a deeper look shows that this would be hard to achieve.
The likes of Fulham, West Ham, Southampton, Leicester, Crystal Palace, and Everton will have a tough game in the 4th round and will most likely have to win a couple of tough ties to even get to the final. This is not exactly the case with Bournemouth, though.
Eddie Howe and his boys host Norwich City in the 4th round and have shown some solid soccer this season already. You can find odds around the 35-40.00 mark for them to win the Carabao Cup. The chances are slim, but this is the best option if you are looking for a surprise.
Based on everything so far, I feel that there are three teams that have the biggest chance to win the Carabao Cup: Manchester City, Chelsea, and Arsenal. The reigning winners from Manchester have the quality, but I don’t think they care that much. Also, the game against Fulham is trickier than what Arsenal and Chelsea will have to face.
The two teams from London are huge favorites in the next round, and both have a new manager that sees the League Cup as a solid opportunity to start with a trophy. I think the chances of both are equal at this point, so I will have to go for Arsenal because of the higher price.
The other pick that might represent some value is Bournemouth. The side has a solid chance to reach the next stage and is decent overall. The price of 35.00 is tempting enough for me to try it with a smaller bet.
Of course, things could change quickly in the tournament, so make sure you follow all the action. I don’t expect any of the favorites to struggle in this round, bar Tottenham, but you never know. The next key point after that will be the draw.
At least one of the big guns will probably have an easy path to the final of the Carabao Cup, so luck plays a role. That’s normal, though, as this is always part of sports betting.
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