Remember to get your bets in early this week!
Because if you reside in the Pacific Time Zone like myself, the tournament will be kicking off before you even eat dinner tonight!
I’m 16 hours behind the players thanks to the PGA Tour stopping in Jeju Island, South Korea. The beautiful Nine Bridges Golf Club will host the CJ Cup for the second time, as we saw Justin Thomas defeat Marc Leishman in a playoff during its inaugural event last year.
Based on the way Marc played last week in Malaysia, it wouldn’t be a shock to see a similar scenario play out this time around.
But I’m not going to worry about who is going to hoist the trophy at the end of the week because it’s too hard to make money that way.
By doing my homework and sticking to the matchups, I can position myself much better to be smiling on Sunday when the tournament concludes.
BetOnline.ag did us a favor by offering a plethora of matchups, so take a look below at which head-to-heads I’ll be targeting.
This might not be the easiest matchup to pronounce, but I’m not sure any on the board provide more obvious value.
If you haven’t heard of Shubhankar Sharma, that’s okay– most haven’t.
The 22-year-old Indian golfer has played in just 7 PGA Tour events in his career, although he’s made 6 of those cuts and has 8 wins worldwide. More importantly, he’s coming off a top-10 finish at the CIMB Classic in which he began the final round tied for the lead with Marc Leishman.
Sharma is comfortable playing in this part of the world, and he got a taste of being in contention last week. There is absolutely no reason whatsoever to suggest that Shubhankar won’t perform well, as he is clearly playing good golf at the moment.
On the other hand, Charl Schwartzel has had loads of top-10 finishes on the PGA Tour over his career; he just hasn’t recorded one since THE PLAYERS Championship back in May!
Schwartzel is an excellent ball striker but is known to be a bit balky with the flat stick. That’s not a good recipe here when you consider that 5 players suffered 10+ 3-putts last year at this same venue.
Too much uncertainty surrounding Charl combined with the positive vibes and momentum carried in by Shubhankar makes this an easy pick for me.
The fact that BetOnline.ag is listing Schwartzel as the -130 favorite and letting us have Sharma at +110 makes it even easier!
This is a pure value play, as it seems as though this should be an evenly-matched head to head with each player listed at -110. This is evidenced by Kyle Stanley and Kevin Na both being listed at +5000 to win and +450 to crack the top 10.
Both players competed at TPC Kuala Lumpur last week, and both players played well. Kyle Stanley used a Sunday 64 to vault all the way up to 18 under par and finish in a tie for 13th, while Kevin Na came in at 17 under in a tie for 19th.
What I really like about the way Na played was that he made just 2 bogies over the entire week, the fewest of any player in the field. It helps that he hit a ridiculous 64/72 greens over the four days, especially when ball striking is supposed to be Kevin’s “weak point.”
The 35-year-old who was born in South Korea is a magician on and around the greens, so it’s hard to see him not posting another solid finish on Jeju Island.
Finding edges in golf matchups isn’t about trying to be perfect, and there is no exact science that tells us who will play well and who won’t.
All I can do is try and unlock the golfers who I feel are being undervalued.
In this case with Stanley at -125 and Na at +105, I feel confident that this is one of those spots.
Unless you follow golf closely, you may or may not be familiar with these two players. Sungjae Im isn’t even old enough to order an alcoholic beverage, and Byeong-Hun An plays much of his golf on the European Tour.
An is coming off a T-13th finish in Malaysia and placed 11th at Nine Bridges in 2017. I’m not here to say that he isn’t primed to play well or is a bad bet to finish in the top 20.
I’m not ready to concede that he should be a -130 favorite over SungjaeIm, either.
For those that don’t know, Sungjae Im is a rookie on the PGA Tour after competing on the Web.com last year. If you are wondering how that went, know that he won twice and finished as the solo runner-up another 3 times-en route to dominating the regular-season money list.
In his debut as a PGA Tour member two weeks ago, all Sungjae did was finish 4th at the Safeway Open.
And now Im is resting comfortably at home, where he gets to tee it up at his home course!
That’s right – Sungjae was born and grew up on Jeju Island and has utilized Nine Bridges as his home course. While most will be playing the track for the first or second time, Im has a wealth of experience and knowledge sitting in his back pocket.
This is one of those matchups where I’d be comfortable wagering on Sungjae at -105, so the +110 number excites me plenty.
The last time we saw Adam Scott in competition was just over a month ago at the BMW Championship where he finished in a tie for 51st.
My guess is he has played very little golf over the last 5 weeks, so it’s reasonable to think he’ll be a bit rusty getting started.
Alex Noren last played an individual event at the BMW Championship as well (where he finished 24th), but he was in France a few weeks ago as part of the European thrashing of the Americans at the Ryder Cup.
Noren is a very consistent player and ended last year ranked 5th on the PGA Tour in strokes gained putting, so I don’t really see any potential rust on his behalf as this tournament gets underway.
Keep in mind that the main way players get tripped up at Nine Bridges is by getting fooled on the severely difficult greens.
We already know that Adam isn’t exactly super-confident with his long wand,so it’s not a matter of if Scott will have any 3 putts.The better question is HOW MANY he will have.
I’d prefer to wager on Adam Scott when I know he is in good form, rather than try and predict how he will play after a layoff. Plus, it’s clear that putting is a stat that’s going to separate the contenders from the pretenders this week.
In a matchup where two golfers are evenly priced, these are the kinds of advantages I look for.
Noren has faced the fire more recently and is the much better putter. Over the course of 4 rounds at this golf course, I think it ends up showing.
Don’t look now, but the fall portion of the 2018/2019 FedEx Cup schedule is in full swing.
Before long, the holiday season will be behind us, and the players will be in Maui at the Sentry Tournament of Champions. But if your plan was to wait until the calendar turned to start betting on golf tournaments, you may want to rethink your strategy.
Each and every week on the PGA Tour is unique, and each one offers an abundance of matchups for us to choose from. So long as you are shopping your lines at the top golf betting sites, you’ll undoubtedly encounter bets that catch your eye and make you ponder.
I do it every week, and I unveil my picks for you right here every Wednesday.
Hopefully, you win some money and come back as the best players in the world head to Shanghai for the WGC-HSBC Champions.
Until then, enjoy the golf this weekend!
The post Betting Preview of the 2018 CJ Cup with Latest Odds and Free Picks appeared first on GamblingSites.com.
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