Halloween is around the corner as teams are well into their conference schedules. Sothere must be some scary surprises in store for this Saturday, right?
We certainly saw a few this past weekend.However, the exquisite performance from the top-ranked team in the nation wasn’t one of them.
Alabama continued to look mightily impressive thanks to their 29-point thrashing of the Missouri Tigers. The victory moved the Crimson Tide to 7-0, and they’ve barely broken a sweat in the process.
When you consider that they have won each and every game by 22 or more points, you begin to realize how dominating Nick Saban’s group has been.
But this past Saturday wasn’t kind to everyone.
For example, #2-ranked Georgia got pounded in Baton Rouge, and Penn State lost their second straight contest. We saw West Virginia fall off the “undefeated pedestal,” and Washington lost a heartbreaker in overtime to Oregon.
All in all, there has been some shakeup near the top of the rankings, led by the Buckeyes moving to number two in both major polls. But perhaps a road test in West Lafayette this weekend against the Boilermakers could spoil Ohio State’s College Football Playoff chances.
I’m not sure Purdue can pull off this upset, but I could see this game being closer than a lot of folks think.
Allow that thought to be the perfect segue into the games I’ll be targeting this weekend! Here I go with my week 8 college football betting picks.
Things seem to be rounding into perfect form for the Ohio State Buckeyes. Their head coach is back at the helm, and quarterback Dwayne Haskins is playing lights out.
With that being said, the newly-crowned number-2-ranked team in the country has absolutely no time to celebrate any mid-season victories.
That’s because they’ll have to leave Columbus this Saturday and play a conference game in a hostile environment at Ross-Ade Stadium.
I’m not here to say that the Boilermakers are equipped with the level of talent that the Buckeyes have or that this spread should be lower than what it is.
But here is what I am willing to concede.
Ohio State has played just one true road game this year, and that resulted in a hard-fought one-point victory over the Nittany Lions. Urban Meyer’s bunch had their hands full with Minnesota last week, and I expect the “going to get even tougher” when they arrive in Lafayette, Indiana, for their Week 8 tilt.
After beating a top-25 opponent (Boston College), the Boilermakers knocked off Nebraska and Illinois. Keep in mind that both of those games were on the road, and Purdue outscored their opposition by a combined total of 88-35.
Obviously, the Buckeyes will provide a much sterner test compared to those aforementioned squads, but I feel that Purdue has enough positive momentum to stay competitive on their home field.
Running backs D.J. Knox and Markell Jones should be able to pick up chunks of yards and move the chains against a defense that allowed Gophers RB Mohamed Ibrahim go off for 23-157-2 last week.
Everything tells me this is a game that the public will be leaning toward betting on Ohio State, especially considering the intriguing number of 13.5 that this game opened at. It’s already up to 14, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see this line jump to 15 by the time it kicks off.
Waiting to pounce here might not be the worst idea.
In any case, look for this game to be a bit tighter than most are anticipating, and look for Purdue to keep this thing within two scores.
Central Florida has been whooping up their competition all year long. Some bettors finally took notice and backed them last week on the road against Memphis and were likely angered when the Knights failed to cover.
So while those souls are likely off the UCF bandwagon, I’m going to stay on board. This week, I’m looking for a seat up at the front.
Despite getting a serious scare this past weekend against the Tigers, I’m not worried one bit about Josh Heupel’s squad.
I could go on and on about how dynamic and balanced Central Florida’s offense is, or you can just look at the numbers for yourself. The Knights are scoring 45.7 points per game and are the only team in the nation averaging more than 250 yards on the ground and more than 300 yards through the air.
Now, couple that with the fact that East Carolina is allowing 42.0 points per game over the last three weeks, and you’ll see the recipe that is brewing for this game.
Central Florida can ill-afford to play another close game if they want an emphatic stamp attached to a potential undefeated season. In other words, the Knights have a whole lot to prove, and this game gives them a golden opportunity to shine.
East Carolina isn’t playing very good football right now, and I suspect this thing gets out of hand quickly. I just don’t believe the Pirates have enough ammunition in their arsenal to do anything but surrender.
Neither of these teams plays in a Power 5 Conference, and you won’t find this game nationally broadcasted on one of the major networks.
But last time I checked, value is value, wherever and whenever it can be spotted.
North Texas takes on the University of Alabama at Birmingham in a game featuring the only two “one-loss” teams in Conference USA.
While the Mean Green of North Texas can run the ball when needed, head coach Seth Littrell prefers to let his junior quarterback Mason Fine sling it around to a multitude of receivers.
The problem for North Texas is that their passing attack will be somewhat negated by a stingy UAB defense that ranks third in college football in passing yards allowed.
Another key component to this game is the simple fact that the Blazers will be playing at home, while the Mean Green face their toughest road challenge yet.
What the Blazers don’t have going for them is that their “ground and pound” strategy they love to employ might not come so easy on Saturday. UAB averages more than 232 rushing yards every time they take the field, but North Texas is allowing just 97 yards per contest.
So something clearly has to give.
I think the home-field advantage here will be enough to carry the Blazers through in what should be a terrific football game.
Given that I imagined UAB would be a 2- or 3-point favorite here, I’ll place a wager here to keep things interesting.
This is setting up to be a fantastic football game.
When Southern Cal takes on Utah on Saturday evening, it’ll be two good teams battling it out for some bragging rights in the PAC-12.
After losing back-to-back games on the road against Stanford and Texas, the Trojans have bounced back famously.
Three straight wins against quality opponents have them at 4-2 and with the identical record held by the Utes.
Utah will undoubtedly be trying to run the ball with Zack Moss, which will, in turn, keep the USC offense on the sidelines. Consider that the Trojans are being gashed for an average of 361.8 yards per game in 2018, and the Utah offense accounts for 406.7 yards/game.
It’s safe to say that we’ll see the Utes in the end zone at least a few times.
And while Utah HC Kyle Whittingham certainly has some playmakers on the defensive side, I’m not sure he has enough to completely shut down J.T. Daniels and the bevy of weapons he has alongside him.
USC has a trio of players with 330 or more receiving yards on the season and another trio of running backs who each average over five yards a pop. I can assure you that Whittingham has already lost plenty of sleep trying to figure out how to slow down the Trojans wideouts.
At the end of the day, this is going to be a pair of hungry teams scratching and clawing to try and get a win. I see it amounting to a heck of a game with a lot of action.
I was assuming I’d see an over/under in the low 50s, so you can imagine what I did when I saw that SportsBetting.ag has this game’s total set at just 46.5.
The ball is in your court, but that number just seems too low for a game of this magnitude, not to mention how many talented offensive players both teams possess.
The added insurance of extra points being scored if this game were to go into overtime makes me more than comfortable about firing away. You may want to consider doing the same.
The Saturday slate may not be filled with top-10 matchups left and right, but don’t let that fool you into thinking there will be any less drama.
When it comes to unlocking value and finding favorable lines, it doesn’t really matter who is playing and what station it’s on. Sometimes it’s actually those lesser-known and less-talked-about games that are the ones that provide the most upside.
It’s okay if you prefer to watch Michigan and Michigan State clash on Fox or Oklahoma and TCU lock horns on ABC. Those games should be a lot of fun.
But when it comes to placing smart wagers, I could care less how many people are watching the game or how much notoriety it’s receiving. I just want to bet the games that I think I can win.
I gave you a quartet of them this week, and I’ll be back next Thursday to do the same thing again!
The post College Football Betting Picks for Week 8 of NCAA Football 2018 appeared first on GamblingSites.com.
No comments:
Post a Comment