Betting on NFL division winners can be one of the more profitable NFL prop bets, depending on the year.
Provided you steer clear of the AFC East, pretty much every division has at least a faint argument for your money to go on someone other than who Vegas and everyone else is favoring.
The New England Patriots simply don’t lose the AFC East. Even if they were at risk of doing so, you’d have to have even an inkling of confidence in the Buffalo Bills, New York Jets, or Miami Dolphins.
There’s nothing to suggest you should, arguably making that division off limits. The Pats are probably winning Super Bowl 53 after all.
That doesn’t mean you can’t aim high elsewhere, and there’s actually a few elite betting values I love going into 2018. Let’s break down my favorite four as the new season rapidly approaches.
The thing about preseason NFL betting is that you need to act fast. With the season drawing closer, some of the best value picks that looked awesome a month or two ago lost some of their luster.
I still think the Bears are worth a look. Everyone thinks the NFC North is a two-team race between the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers. That very well may be, but there is a lot to like about this young Chicago team.
John Fox instilled a competitive will with this roster, and offensive guru Matt Nagy takes over with better personnel. Year two could be a big one for the talented Mitchell Trubisky, who has the tools, system, and supporting cast to thrive in 2018.
Chicago is not making this kid do it all by himself, either. Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen form a nasty rushing attack, while new weapons in Allen Robinson and Trey Burton make the Bears dangerous through the air.
The Bears don’t lack bite on the defensive side of the ball, either. Kyle Fuller was retained, and Chicago drafted Roquan Smith to be a leader at linebacker.
If you’re not sold on them making a run to Super Bowl 53, I get it. However, at +800, there aren’t many better NFL division picks out there when you look at value.
If you want a little more stability at that same nice price, consider looking at the Washington Redskins.
Jay Gruden’s crew has already been dealt some rough luck with stud rookie rusher Derrius Guice being lost for the year with a torn ACL, but they’re still stacked with veteran talent.
The trade for quarterback Alex Smith stabilizes their passing game, while the veteran passer has some tantalizing options to work with in Josh Doctson, Jamison Crowder, Jordan Reed, and Paul Richardson.
The consistency you find on elite teams isn’t proven to be there yet, but the Redskins have speed and the overall tools to torch defenses. Future Hall of Famer Adrian Peterson joins the backfield, and with scat-back Chris Thompson at his side, could have a chance at forming a nasty running game.
I understand the doubt associated with Peterson, but even at 33, he’s a physical marvel. If the role is there and he’s determined enough, it’s not that crazy to imagine him playing well and elevating Washington in the process.
The good news is that the offense isn’t alone.
Josh Norman anchors a talented secondary, while Ryan Kerrigan has morphed into a dominant pass rusher. If Washington can be a little more stingy on that side of the ball, they just may have the goods to storm the castle in the NFC East.
Making this bet even more interesting is a potential Super Bowl hangover for the Eagles, who also could be without Carson Wentz to start the season. They could just as easily repeat as title winners, but if not, there could be room for the Redskins or someone else to rise up the rankings.
You can get a little more value with the Browns. Their price was way more appealing a few months back, but they seem to finally have a good GM and are making sounds moves.
Not only did Cleveland draft well last year, but they really made an effort to improve their talent base.
They made sure quarterback would no longer be such a glaring weakness, as they traded for former Bills starter Tyrod Taylor and spent the #1 overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft on Oklahoma passer Baker Mayfield.
One way or another, the Browns are set up to succeed through the air based on the talent under center alone. They also have the explosive Josh Gordon back with his mind right, while Jarvis Landry and David Njoku round out a seriously overlooked Cleveland passing attack.
The Browns already have a stacked offensive line, so there’s a pretty strong argument they’ll also be able to pound the ball on the ground. Carlos Hyde comes in to manage the early down work, while the Browns drafted the athletic Nick Chubb and still have scat-back Duke Johnson to work with.
You might say the same on defense, where Myles Garrett leads a seemingly vastly improved unit. The talent is certainly there, and if the Browns can iron out some small wrinkles, they may really have something here.
Are they already for sure the best team in the AFC North? No, that title belongs to the Pittsburgh Steelers. However, Cleveland isn’t going 0-16 again and very well may experience the biggest one-year turnaround we’ve ever seen.
It’s up to you to decide if their rapid improvement should lead to a wager on them to win the division at a +900 price tag.
I really do feel like everyone here has a mild chance to return value this year.
I’m not exactly picking them to win their respective divisions, but based on the price and everything we’ve seen thus far, I wouldn’t be that shocked, and they could be worth a bet.
Lastly, I’d assign the same narrative to the Arizona Cardinals.
The Cardinals are in a quick rebuilding mode, but it might not last long with a solid quarterback situation, a stud running back, a veteran wide receiver, and a talented defense combining to make one of the more underrated situations in the league.
Sam Bradford is a lot better than people give him credit for, and he’s certainly good enough to lead this Cardinals team to the playoffs. If he gets hurt like he often has in the past, rookie franchise passer Josh Rosen could be ready to take over and get the job done as early as this season.
Neither of these guys is going it alone, as stud rusher David Johnson is back in the saddle and figures to be featured prominently in this offense. Even DJ doesn’t have to do all of the heavy lifting, however, as Larry Fitzgerald leads a young crop of wide receivers that could actually end up shocking the league.
Rookie Christian Kirk has been impressive all summer and may carve out the #2 role across from Fitz, while Ricky Seals-Jones, Chad Williams, J.J. Nelson, and Brice Butler make up a depth chart ready to compete.
If you’re not sold on AZ offensively, maybe you’ll confide in their defense. They did lose some key parts, but Chandler Jones still anchors a nasty pass rush, and it’s always tough to bet against a secondary paced by Patrick Peterson.
Seattle is trending in the wrong direction, and I’m not quite sold on the 49ers just yet. That could leave just the Rams as Arizona’s main threat in this division. That’s still quite the hill to climb, but for a 50% chance, a +1400 price seems obscene.
As I touched on, I don’t expect all of these teams to win their divisions, and it’s quite possible none of them do. But I’m also not telling you to bet on the Broncos, Dolphins, or a slew of other teams that have nice odds but simply aren’t teams I’m really worried about.
I actually think these teams could make some noise. Every one of them has a tough road to the top of the mountain, though.
Chicago is staring the Packers and Vikings in the face. Washington has to get through the defending champs. Arizona has to best the Rams, too, while the Browns have to not be so Browns-y.
The point here is that the 2018 NFL season is rapidly approaching, but there is still a lot of value to be had. Consider these four division upset picks, and you just might end the year with some serious profit.
The post Chicago and 3 Other Division Upset Picks for Your 2018 NFL Betting appeared first on GamblingSites.com.
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