At a first glance, Group B of the soccer World Cup is one of the most predictable in terms of who’s going to qualify. European powerhouses Spain and Portugal are the huge favorites, while Morocco and Iran are expected to go home.
I tend to agree completely about Iran, but Morocco probably has the potential to at least get SOMETHING out of the games with the big favorites in the group.
It would be quite the shock if they managed to progress at the expense of either Spain or Portugal, but it’s not entirely unrealistic.
Let’s take a look at each the four teams in detail and see if there’s any value in the current betting markets for Group B.
Spain dominated the soccer world between 2008 and 2012, winning two European Championships and a World Cup. La Furia Roja was crushing opponents at will with its tiki-taka style after years of playing attractive but inefficient soccer.
Most of the golden generation is now gone, and you could easily see the effects in the last two big tournaments. The Spaniards failed to deliver in the 2014 World Cup and Euro 2016.
A change in playing style was necessary, and a successful qualifying campaign for the World Cup in Russia showed promising signs.
Spain has tried to mix its traditional game by combining possession-based play with a more direct approach when the opportunity arises. The addition of rising talents like Isco and Marco Asensio certainly helps with this approach, and Spain appears to be on the rise once more.
Contrary to what most people see, I believe the strongest side of this Spanish side is the defense. They will be tough to beat with an exceptional goalkeeper like David De Gea and a back line led by the veterans Sergio Ramos and Gerard Pique.
Such defensive stability allows the attacking players to be more adventurous and take some risks. That’s why I see Spain progressing easily from this group.
Furthermore, I believe the former World Cup champs can beat any team from group A. They’ll be up against a team from that group if they do progress, and they should be able to reach the quarterfinals at least.
However, the odds of 1.08 to advance here are a joke. Despite my confidence in their ability, there’s no way I can back them at that price. And given that winning the group is not exactly certain, the price of 1.50 for that is not worth it, either.
Portugal is an interesting side. At the Euro 2016 in France, the country struggled in the group stages. It looked abysmal at times, and Cristiano Ronaldo was unable to score despite shooting 10-15 times per match.
A lot of people made fun of Portugal, but the Iberians had the last laugh. They somehow managed to not only reach the final but to actually win it. And by “somehow” I mean that they showed resilience, tough defense, and the ability to do what’s necessary when it matters the most.
This is an invaluable quality when it comes to winning knockout tournaments. The backbone of the Portuguese squad is similar to the one that brought the European Championship home two years ago, so I expect more of the same from the team here in Russia.
They won’t be convincing at times, but they definitely have the potential to go deep in the tournament for a couple of reasons.
For a start, they have a solid defense. You won’t see Portugal conceding a lot, especially in the knockout stages (if they reach them, of course). The back line is well-drilled, and the midfield helps a lot.
When you look at the middle of the park, Portugal has a lot of decent players that can both control the tempo and create chances. Sure, they lack the talent of other big European nations, but that didn’t stop them from winning Euro 2016.
Finally, the team has one of the greatest players of all time leading the attack. Cristiano Ronaldo is an exceptional gladiator and one of the finest goalscorers of our generation.
He had a controversial performance in France in 2016, and a lot of people believe it was his teammates who contributed most to winning the tournament. Ronaldo will be eager to prove his worth to the national side, so I anticipate a good tournament from him.
I certainly expect Portugal to qualify from the group stage, and they should be a favorite in the last 16, too. In fact, the price for the nation to win the group is way too high, in my opinion. At 3.00, this is one of the bets that instantly look tempting.
Morocco is returning to the soccer World Cup finals for the 5th time. Their last appearance was back in 1998, and the country has been struggling to qualify for the competition ever since. They actually won the African Group C to book their place this time around, though.
The most impressive aspect of Morocco’s game is the defense. In the six games of the qualifying campaign for Russia 2018, the country conceded exactly zero goals.
This defensive solidity can be attributed to two people: the coach and his captain.
The coach, Herve Renard, is not a very famous name, but he has a lot of experience at the international level. He’s made Morocco tough to beat by focusing on strong discipline and exceptional work ethic.
He relies heavily on Medhi Benatia, who’s not just the captain but also the best player of the team.
It’s worth noting, however, that the nation has a couple of other leaders who have made a name on the European stage.
Hakim Ziyech won the award for the best player in the Dutch Eredivisie and has been in fine form for Ajax this season. Alongside Younes Belhanda, those two are more than capable of pulling the strings from midfield and creating chances.
Unfortunately for Morocco, the team is in a group with Spain and Portugal. This makes their task of reaching the knockout stages VERY hard to achieve.
Still, the odds of 4.25 are tempting. One of the main reasons is that Morocco will play Iran first. If they manage to win this game, as I expect, the Africans will have a chance until the last match in the group.
This will put one or both of Spain and Portugal under pressure, and they could crack.
No one’s taking Iran too seriously, and the country is considered one of the least likely teams to reach the knockouts. This didn’t prevent the country from arriving the earliest in Russia with the sole purpose of preparing properly for the World Cup.
It’s curious to see that Iran is actually above Morocco in the official FIFA rankings. Furthermore, the country had an unbeaten qualifying campaign for the World Cup and kept clean sheets in 12 consecutive games.
On top of that, Iran has in its ranks Alireza Jahanbakhsh, who was the top scorer of the Dutch Eredivisie this season. The team is also coached by the respected and experienced Carlos Queiroz.
The country seems better than the squad that played in Brazil 2014, but that doesn’t mean much. The competition during the qualifying stage was not that great, so I can’t really take too much from Iran’s record during that phase.
I believe Iran has a couple of good players, but there are too many players from the local league which is FAR behind the top European competitions.
It would be heroic for Iran to even win a game, and qualifying from this group would qualify as a miracle in my book. This is why I believe the odds are fair, and I’m not interested in backing Iran to go through.
I believe the clash between Spain and Portugal is the one to watch for multiple reasons. For a start, the game is part of the first round, which means it will set the tone for what’s to follow.
The European neighbors are the two strongest on paper in this group and should both be fighting for the first position in the group. The country that wins here will have a massive advantage and could very well end up first in the final standings.
The team that loses will be put under pressure, especially if Morocco manages to beat Iran. That could mean that either Spain or Portugal may end up in the tough position of fighting for second until the very end.
The stakes are high, so I can see this game as a very tight affair. Both teams should be focused on not conceding, as they will feel that Iran and Morocco are much easier to beat.
I won’t be surprised if this match ends in a draw, but we’ll have to wait and see.
There are two obvious favorites in this group in Spain and Portugal. They are the teams most likely to progress, but Iran and especially Morocco are not as lightweight as many believe.
This is why I don’t think there is any value in the low odds for Spain or Portugal to progress. However, while the former World Cup winner is the overwhelming favorite to win the group, the current European champion is priced 3.00 to do so.
This is why my main bet would be Portugal to win the group. If the team manages to not lose against Spain, it’s game on. The odds of 3.00 definitely represent good value here.
If you are looking for some huge surprises, there’s another potential wager here. Morocco to qualify at 4.25 is probably worth a shot because the African country is a tough nut to crack.
If you haven’t checked my post about the possible winners of the World Cup, you could take a look by following the link provided and see why I believe the odds for Portugal represent decent value.
Also, I believe Cristiano Ronaldo has a good shot at becoming the top scorer of the competition. I explained my reasoning in a separate post related to this betting market.
Could we really end up seeing Portugal lift the World Cup just two years after securing the European Championship? It’s certainly not beyond the realms of possibility, but there’s a lot of soccer to be played before that will happen. For now, let’s just see if they and Spain can get out of this group as expected.
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