The Cleveland Cavaliers almost shocked the world in game one of the 2018 NBA Finals. LeBron James beasted out to the tune of 51 points, and for a second there, the Cavs had the reigning champs on the ropes.
A missed George Hill free throw left the game tied late in game one, however, while J.R. Smith grabbed the rebound and inexplicably ran out the clock.
You would have thought this was Ahmad Bradshaw dropping to the field in the waning moments of a Super Bowl win.
The trouble was, of course, Smith wasn’t nursing a lead. Instead, he drained the final four seconds and wasted a potential shot at winning the game in regulation.
Golden State took full advantage of their new life in overtime and wound up running away with the game.
That burned a lot of bettors who took a shot on the Cavs, myself included. Cleveland was an eye-popping underdog value at +660, and while they didn’t work out, they were certainly worth exploring.
Remember, a losing bet is not automatically a BAD bet. You can’t win them all, and as long as you’re making good decisions and betting for the right reasons, you should see positive results in the long run.
With that in mind, let’s have a quick review of last week’s upset picks before moving onto some fresh ones for the week ahead.
Cleveland’s jaw-dropping price ultimately turned out to be too good to be true, as Cleveland wilted and then again lost game two on Sunday. They’re now in that dreaded 2-0 hole and may even be looking at a sweep.
While that remains possible, the Cavs were close to pulling off a massive upset and were worth targeting.
Here’s a reminder of all my upset picks from last week, along with the results.
Washington Capitals over Vegas Golden Knights+135
Cleveland Cavaliers over Golden State Warriors+60 
Toronto Blue Jays over Boston Red Sox+168
Vinc Pichel over Gregor Gillespie+350
After going a blistering 4-1 with my upsets picks in the previous week, I fell short of such success with a shaky 1-3 run last week.
The Cavs were close to paying for all of these bets, but they choked and dropped me to a losing record.
Toronto wasn’t really close in an 8-3 loss to Boston last Tuesday, either, while Vinc Pichel got choked out in round two to keep Gregor Gillespie a perfect 12-0.
My lone win came with the Capitals in game two, as they tied up the 2018 Stanley Cup Finals. Washington even went on to win game three, and they enter the new week with a 2-1 series lead.
Overall, I dropped to 16-22-1 on the year with my underdog picks.
Some of the biggest sports leagues are winding down, and your window for high-level upset picks is shrinking, but there are still some solid underdogs to chase after.
Let’s now go over my favorite upset picks for the week of Monday, June 4th.
After a super-light MLB schedule on Monday (just five games), things open back up for MLB bettors on Tuesday.
There is a slew of games to target on the first big baseball betting day of the new week, but one of my favorite games to attack is a showdown between the New York Mets and Baltimore Orioles.
Vegas is not giving the Mets much credit here, and that has a lot to do with gas can Jason Vargas taking the mound. He sure hasn’t been great, but the Mets could explode on Alex Cobb just as easily.
I find it pretty easy to side with New York, as they get the benefit of playing at home and host an O’s squad that has been horrendous (7-23) outside of Camden Yards.
The pitching is arguably a wash here, and due to the Orioles being an inefficient offense on the road, I love the Mets at +160 to get the week rolling.
J.R. Smith ruined a great opportunity for Cleveland to strike first in the 2018 NBA Finals. While the Cavs looked ready to give this series a go, they’re suddenly down 2-0 and may be on the verge of getting swept.
The broom isn’t out just yet, however, as Golden State would still have to win the next two games in Cleveland. That is easier said than done, as the Cavs played the Dubs extremely well in game one and hung around for most of game two as well.
It’s really interesting that they’re still solid underdogs despite playing at home, while this is easily their best shot to make this a series.
Cleveland was often very good when bet against this year. The Cavs were the second-best team (17-10) ATS as underdogs this year, while Vegas betting against them on their home floor seems like it could be asking for trouble.
I know the Warriors are the far better team, but Cleveland showed in game one that they can win a game if they stay focused and close it out.
In game three, their value drops from where it was in the two Oracle Arena contests, but +165 is still a wager worth going after.
I’ve enjoyed a little success nailing a couple MMA upset picks this year, and I see some opportunity to go after a couple more this week.
UFC 225 showcases some very interesting showdowns, with one of the best fights being between iconic MMA legend Alistair Overeem and the rising Curtis Blaydes.
Blaydes (9-1) enters as the solid favorite, but I find that a little shocking. It took a lot out of him just to get past Mark Hunt in his last fight, and he needed a Decision to notch the win.
Alistair Overeem has developed a soft chin as his career has progressed, but he remains one of the more decorated and versatile UFC fighters.
The 38-year-old can beat you on the floor or standing up, and I’m not sure losses to nasty mashers like Francis Ngannou or Stipe Miocic can be used against him.
I understand that Overeem is in decline and more vulnerable to heavy punches than he was in the past, but he’s still a vicious fighter. He’s a much tougher out than Hunt, too, so if Blaydes isn’t careful, he could be a stepping stone for Overeem to earn another title shot.
The value speaks to me here, as Overeem is still capable of taking anyone out with one punch, and outside of two very understandable losses, he’s 6-2 over his last eight bouts.
You can bet on individual games throughout the week, but one easy way to big money is to spot a couple MLB series where the underdog can take two of three or three of four.
Any team can snag one game as an upset or favorite, but spotting the teams that can rack up the wins and steal a series is a great way to land some elite betting value.
There are a few opportunities to consider doing that this week, but one of my favorites is in Wrigley Field, where Philadelphia’s offense could blast off against the Cubs.
Chicago is rarely a fun team to bet against (15-11 at home and 8-2 over their last 10 games), but the Phillies have been pretty potent offensively and are in a nice spot for offense.
Despite being down Rhys Hoskins, Philadelphia still has a stacked offense that could lift them to two wins in this series.
Reliable ace Aaron Nola will start one of the contests in this three-game series, while Zach Eflin and Nick Pivetta will look to keep hot starts going against a loaded Cubs lineup.
There is risk here, but the value and upside are worth it for a Phillies team that has already ripped off 31 wins and is contending for first place in the NL East.
I’ll cap my upset picks column off with a second MMA upset, as Yoel Romero feels like a crazy bargain as a steep underdog against Robert Whittaker.
This is the second battle between these two after Whittaker stole a Decision win in July of 2017. Romero has otherwise been perfect since 2011, as his vicious striking ability gives him a shot against literally anyone he faces.
Luke Rockhold and Chris Weidman both found that out the hard way, while Romero has a long list of solid wins.
The 41-year-old is probably running out of time to really leave his mark in the UFC, but a win over Whittaker would avenge his lone UFC defeat and also net him the middleweight title.
Anytime two quality fighters face off for a second time, there is very real risk of the fight going the opposite way it did the first time.
Add in that Whittaker needed a Decision to get past the explosive Romero, and I’m willing to bet the second go-around doesn’t end in his favor.
That does it for this week’s breakdown of my favorite underdog picks to target in sports betting circles. It’s important to always at least survey the top wagers and gauge which upset picks have a real shot at paying off.
In some cases, it’s more about the elite price than the logic behind the bet. That was largely the case going into game one last week with the Cavs, and yet it almost paid off.
Ideally, however, you can mix a nice price and sound logic to back these high-upside bets.
Hopefully a few of these can hit and help you land some big winnings. Either way, good luck with all of your betting this week!
The post Possible Upsets to Target in the Week of June 4th – 5 Upset Picks for Bettors appeared first on GamblingSites.com.
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