After all of the crazy build-up, the 2018 NFL Draft has come and gone. There was a lot of hype surrounding the top pick, and in the end, the Cleveland Browns shocked everyone by drafting Oklahoma quarterback Baker Mayfield.
If you saw that coming, you could have won big with any Baker Mayfield NFL Draft prop bets.
That, or you were a member of the Cleveland Browns.
It was a pretty insane ride to get to this point, but it’s now in the rearview mirror, and teams (and experts) can begin assessing how those April draft day moves could impact each team’s Super Bowl 53 odds.
The New England Patriots are still the top favorites, and rightfully so.
Star tight end Rob Gronkowski and quarterback Tom Brady will both be back despite the media trying to trick us all, while Julian Edelman will be returning from a torn ACL.
New England also made a litany of non-draft moves that figure to make one of the best-run teams in the NFL even better.
I could talk all day about the Pats and how they make sense as the favorites again, but they’re just one of 32 teams in the league.
Here’s how the rest stack up with their Super Bowl 53 odds at BetOnline.
The draft aside, there are some very interesting prices here, and it gets even weirder when you compare a few of these teams.
I get that the Houston Texans are a team on the rise, assuming J.J. Watt and Deshaun Watson both make healthy returns this year.
BetOnline is pricing them ahead of the Jacksonville Jaguars, however, and this is a team that made it to the AFC title game last year with a far better defense and a strong running game.
By all accounts, the Jags are the better team and the better bet.
Noting differences like that in Super Bowl odds at BetOnline and wherever else you wager could be key to locating elite betting value this year, as well as nailing the right Super Bowl winner.
It’s very possible the Patriots and Eagles both get back to the Super Bowl or that teams like the Rams, Steelers, or Packers make the leap. You’re getting some value with any of these teams as viable contenders, but if they win it all, they won’t be offering the most value possible.
Another aspect is how teams improve and how it can impact their odds. The 2018 NFL Draft is one source of team’s improvement, and it can take over a roster pretty quickly.
It took the Eagles just two years to build a title threat, and before Carson Wentz went down with a shredded knee, he was a huge reason for their success.
It started with a big trade to land him in the 2016 NFL Draft, and two seasons later, the Eagles have their first ever Lombardi Trophy.
Veteran teams usually are responsible for titles, but just look at the past few years where teams invested in the running back position early and saw immediate returns.
Leonard Fournette is the most recent example, as he teamed up with an elite Jacksonville defense to nearly push the Jags to their first ever Super Bowl.
It’s tough to say this year’s draft will play a huge hand in what happens in Super Bowl 53, but sports bettors at least need to consider how it might.
To do that, here’s a look at five teams that crushed the draft and visibly got better and five more that arguably failed at doing so.
Change the record, right? I know the Pats gave up Brandin Cooks to get here, but they acquired early 2019 draft picks, had a good draft, and brought in cheap talent other teams no longer wanted.
Danny Shelton, Cordarrelle Patterson, and Jason McCourty stand out, as pointed out by NFL expert Evan Silva on Twitter.
In addition to the 9 prospects they drafted, #Patriots turned their 2018 draft capital into:
RT Trent Brown
NT Danny Shelton
KR Cordarrelle Patterson
LB Marquis Flowers
CB Jason McCourty#Bears 2019 2nd-round pick#Lions 2019 3rd-round pick
— Evan Silva (@evansilva) April 30, 2018
As for the draft itself, the Patriots weren’t half bad there, either.
Sony Michel was a solid pickup late in round one, which shored up amazing depth at running back and possibly landed the Pats a legit star rusher.
Isaiah Wynn was a reach before Michel, but not a lofty one. He was still one of the best offensive lineman on the board, and he should help New England, which ranked 9th in sacks allowed in 2017.
New England’s main issues last year were on the defensive side of the ball, and they drafted like it for the most part.
Only time will tell if cornerback Duke Dawson and linebackers Ja’Whaun Bentley and Christian Sam will pan out, but the Pats certainly found themselves some much-needed depth, either way.
Overall, New England was very busy this offseason. Considering they’re already favored to win it all again and have played in three of the last four Super Bowls, it’s impressive to see them be so proactive.
At +600, the Pats are the easy Super Bowl 53 favorites, and they only got better.
I love what the Packers have done all offseason, and that includes the draft.
Before we even got to April, the Packers did a lot of work to improve their roster. First, they added to an already stacked defensive line by bringing in the talented Muhammad Wilkerson.
Wilkerson wore out his welcome in New York but is a beast when motivated. Signing him to a one-year “prove it” deal could end up being genius.
Green Bay also shed a regressing receiver in Jordy Nelson, re-signed a potential stud in Davante Adams to a long-term deal, and also beefed up their red-zone upside with tight end Jimmy Graham.
Right off the bat, they get a healthy Aaron Rodgers back, and if this team actually commits to a balanced offense, they could be among the best in the NFL in 2018.
The lingering issues stem from a still woeful defense that ranked 23rd against the pass. Green Bay addressed their biggest weakness right away in the draft, nabbing stud cornerback Jaire Alexander in round one.
That wasn’t before they moved around via trades, setting themselves up for future success by snatching next year’s first rounder from the Saints.
Green Bay didn’t stop there, as they got another high-level defensive back prospect via Iowa ball hawk Josh Jackson. Considering Jackson had been mocked to the Packers all draft season, he comes off as a huge steal in round two.
While the Packers didn’t hit a clear home run with any of their other draft choices, they did keep hitting up areas of need.
Over the next five rounds, Green Bay took three wide receivers to offset the departure of Nelson, brought in a versatile linebacker, touched up their o-line, and also brought in a pass rusher.
This was already a team vying for a Super Bowl run before A-Rod went down. Now he’ll be back with a better offense and a defense that has fresh talent and Mike Pettine calling the shots.
John Elway got his quarterback in Case Keenum in free agency, and he’s got two young guys to develop behind him.
That in theory gave him the ability to simply go get the best available talents in the draft this year, and assuming Keenum works out, it could end up being a genius move.
Denver lost some defensive talent over the last two years, but they got it back in a big way via Bradley Chubb with the 5th overall pick. Considering they already are stacked in the pass rush with Von Miller and Shane Ray, this is a huge get.
The Broncos have two very good wide receivers, but they also spiced their passing game up with Courtland Sutton, who was a heck of a steal in round two. He could be a stud at the next level and makes up for Cody Latimer being a bust.
Straight out of the gates, Keenum has a full arsenal to go to war with on offense, just like he did in Minnesota.
For those wondering if Devontae Booker can be trusted, the Broncos made sure to get some insurance. Oregon rusher Royce Freeman was plucked off the board in round three to possibly compete for the starting gig or at the very worst provide solid depth.
The Broncos proceeded to nab solid defensive talent, with cornerback Isaac Yiadom beefing up their pass defense and linebacker Josey Jewell hopefully providing a solid rotation player.
DaeSean Hamilton was one of the biggest steals of the draft in round four. If you weren’t biting on Keenum’s supporting cast, he probably cements it.
Overall, the Broncos already had the defensive tools to compete at a high level. Von Miller anchors a unit that won a title just three years ago, and there have been solid additions on both sides of the ball.
I really liked what the G-Men did in the 2018 NFL Draft. They’re trusting a 37-year-old Eli Manning isn’t done quite yet, while diva receiver Odell Beckham Jr. is probably here to stay.
Perhaps Big Blue ends up bringing in Dez Bryant to bolster this offense even more, but the bigger move was drafting Penn State running back Saquon Barkley at second overall.
Barkley is a generational talent that alone makes this draft a success. He can take over the ground game and balance this offense out, giving the Giants a late-game icer and taking some pressure off of Manning and the passing game.
Nabbing Barkley also could aid the defense, which was pretty stout in 2016 and still has a lot of talent. New York is still stacked in the secondary, and bringing in Alec Ogletree in the offseason gives their linebacking corps a huge boost.
The Giants were active on that side of the ball in the draft, too, as defensive tackle B.J. Hill and pass rusher Lorenzo Carter were solid finds in round three.
New York has also had ongoing concerns with their o-line, and they addressed that in a big way. Stud guard Will Hernandez was a massive steal at the top of round two, and he figures to be a prominent fixture right away.
It didn’t look like much (New York had just six picks), but quality beats quantity. New York was awful last year due to a rash of injuries, but they got a lot better this offseason, and the draft was a big part of it.
New York has better management and seems to be trending in the right direction.
Sticking in the NFC East, the Redskins also had a very underrated draft. Their offseason as a whole toed the line of genius and insanity, too, as they let Kirk Cousins go and traded for Alex Smith.
Before the draft, the Redskins also improved their passing game by signing explosive receiver Paul Richardson. They probably need tight end Jordan Reed to stay healthy to go anywhere, but on paper, this roster has some legs.
Fortunately, it doesn’t stop there, as Washington also had a productive draft.
LSU running back Derrius Guice stands out as one of the top steals in the 2018 NFL Draft. He was a first-round prospect, so the fact that Washington could upgrade their running game with a legit stud rusher in the second round is potentially huge.
Washington also nabbed an amazing wide receiver value in round seven, as Trey Quinn projects as an elite slot man.
The Redskins really made an impact on the defensive side of the football, though. Da’Ron Payne beefs up the middle of their defensive line, while Tim Settle offers some depth on the interior as well.
Penn State safety Troy Apke feels like a huge steal in round four, as he has the speed and overall athleticism to be a dynamic safety.
Overall, Washington took a solid and balanced roster and simply made it better. This team has a rising defense and a balanced offense with a few dangerous weapons.
As a whole, the Redskins feel like one of the more slept-on teams.
The Lions have a lot of ground to make up in the NFC North, and I don’t think they did enough in the draft. Minnesota is the class of this division right now, Green Bay is right behind them, and the Chicago Bears are getting better as well.
The Lions did have two solid picks here, starting with stud interior offensive lineman Frank Ragnow at the 20th spot. A splashier pick could have been had here, of course, as elite talent like Rashaan Evans or Harold Landry could have provided a big boost for a middling defense.
Detroit has had constant issues at tailback, and they did invest in rookie rusher Kerryon Johnson. I appreciate the effort, but the Lions just brought in LeGarrette Blount and already have a stable of running backs that haven’t produced.
If Johnson is the solution to balance this offense out, I’ll stand corrected.
However, I’m not sure that’s the case, and in round two, the Lions should have been able to nab a high-impact defender. They didn’t do that, and they failed to land any high-profile prospects the rest of the way.
From a value and impact perspective, the Lions didn’t do enough in this draft to account for the leap they need to make.
Getting Andrew Luck back alone is going to be huge for the Colts, but as you could see last year, this team is lacking high-level talent on both sides of the ball.
Indy had plenty of draft picks to work with, but they failed to land any huge steals or reel in high-level talent.
Draft scouts can often be proven wrong down the road, but few of Indy’s players were really on the map to be highly touted. That doesn’t mean they didn’t hit up some needs and bring in some helpful pieces, but the big blows were lacking.
The only real noteworthy move was the selection of Quenton Nelson at the 6th spot. He was the best offensive lineman in the draft, but he was also probably the easiest pick to make.
Beyond Nelson, the Colts just didn’t do anything to wow me.
I was a fan of the Chiefs the past few years. Alex Smith game them a smart decision-maker, and they built an explosive offense around him. KC also had a talented defense, so they appeared to be headed for a deep playoff run at some point.
Unfortunately, KC didn’t seem to believe they could go any further with Smith running the show, and they’ve handed their offense over to second-year quarterback Patrick Mahomes III.
Maybe Mahomes is the future, and they’ll be better, but it may take some time to find out.
If Mahomes pans out quickly, the Chiefs are already a bargain with their +3300 title odds. Unfortunately, it didn’t feel like they accomplished much in this year’s draft.
Standing pat can often be the answer, but Kansas City didn’t have a pick in round one and failed to land any high-profile prospects with any of their draft choices.
Kansas City did attack some key needs by shoring up their defensive line and drafting almost exclusively defense, but the impact feels minimal.
A lot of teams had subpar drafts, but the Chiefs missed the mark without a clear impact player that seems ready to contribute in 2018.
The Saints are another team that’s tough to peg, seeing as they were one miracle play (against them) from getting to the NFC title game a year ago.
New Orleans improved defensively last year, and they were more balanced than ever offensively. In theory, incorporating the same system and just adding some solid pieces via the draft gives them another shot.
The only problem is that the NFC South is super competitive, and the NFC as a whole is no joke. You need to go 11-5 in this conference to ensure you make the playoffs, and I’m not sure the Saints did enough in this draft to make sure that happens.
I do like the first-round pick of Marcus Davenport. He was a tantalizing talent coming into the draft and hypothetically fits their system perfectly on the edge.
The bad news is that he was their only pick that stood out.
Not only did the Saints accomplish very little after round one, but they got swindled in the process. Green Bay traded out of the 14th spot and stole a first-rounder from the Saints for the 2019 draft.
If things don’t go as planned, the Saints won’t just be on the outside looking in this year, but they’ll also be behind the eight ball in next year’s draft.
Last, and possibly least, are the Steelers. I know Pittsburgh remains stacked. Ben Roethlisberger will be back in 2018, and he has an endless supply of elite weapons on offense.
However, there are some concerns here. The first is that the team did just trade away Martavis Bryant. He may have been a cancerous problem, but he still stretched the field.
Assuming rookie second-round pick James Washington will be an immediate replacement might be a bit too bold. Elsewhere, the Steelers didn’t address a pedestrian tight end situation, and they also didn’t protect themselves from a Le’Veon Bell holdout or injury.
In past years, Pittsburgh had the sly DeAngelo Williams to lean on, but now the backup running back position is a big question mark.
The Steelers had some solid picks. Safety Terrell Edmunds could be a future star, Washington in theory gives them another speedster on the outside, and Mason Rudolph could end up being the heir apparent to Big Ben.
That’s all good and well, but with +1200 title odds, this team is built to compete for a Super Bowl right now.
What the Steelers still lack is a competent replacement for Ryan Shazier on the inside, and they needed to patch up their offensive line. That, and it’s arguable Edmunds was a slight reach where Pittsburgh took him.
For a team that is already built to contend, having a weak draft may not matter. But in a conference where teams like the Patriots, Jaguars, Broncos, Chargers, and Texans all got visibly better, it might be more of an issue than bettors want to admit.
When the dust settles, this still seems to be New England’s pro football world, and everyone else is just living in it. I do think there are other Super Bowl threats out there, and that makes a few teams worth a look.
There are also obviously a few teams that, like the Pats, enjoyed very successful draft days. To be frank, there were more than five of them. Numerous teams did a fine job adding elite talent or fattening up thin rosters.
Sadly, I don’t think anyone did a better job than New England. Some teams put an onus on just getting better in 2018, and others tried to make sure they were set up for the future.
A few did a decent job of doing both, but nobody does it better than Bill Belichick, and that was on display again in April.
Does that mean the Patriots are locks to win next year’s title or even get back to the Super Bowl yet again? No, but at +600, I don’t think there’s better value to be had.
New England is built for 2018 as well as the long haul, with their lone question mark being the future under center. However, Tom Brady is apparently ageless and will never retire. Until one of those things turn out to be false, the Pats stand in as the team to beat.
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