Nailing upset picks in the sports world is never easy. Going into last week, I was just 5-8 in 13 tries. Part of that is on the person making the picks, but sometimes getting that amazing value can be on the actual wagers on hand.
My first two run-throughs produced average results, but I was still able to deliver a few solid upset picks. Heading into week three, I noticed the top sports betting websites open things up a bit more, and I was able to locate some more value.
At first glance, that appears to be the case again for the second week of May. Before I get to this week’s upset picks, though, let’s rehash how last week went.
As I said, I entered last week with a 5-8 record and was hoping to deliver my first winning week to my readers.
I handed out seven picks in order to get there and suffered a loss when my Kentucky Derby sleeper (Bolt d’Oro) couldn’t get the job done on Saturday. Here’s how the rest did:
I already touched on d’Oro. It was the favored Justify who returned strong value as the winner. Although, to be fair, d’Oro was in the top three pretty late into the race.
I took a couple more shots on NHL upset picks and went 1-1 on the week. The Capitals got a big win and returned solid value, but the Jets put up 7 goals (seriously?) in a wild 7-4 win over Nashville.
I also aimed high with two huge NBA upsets. New Orleans did eventually take down the Dubs, but that didn’t happen until game three. They whiffed on my game-two upset call.
Utah did deliver a massive win for you if you rolled the dice there, though. The Jazz took down the Rockets in game two despite not having Donovan Mitchell on hand and gave back inside value as +613 underdogs.
Moving over to baseball, I really loved the value of the Yanks at +160. They were on the road for a four-game series with the defending champs, but they stood out to me. They delivered, taking the series with a commanding 3-1 lead.
I also backed Arizona in a home series with the rival Dodgers. Their price wasn’t quite as stout, but they made some sense as a hot team in their home park. The series ended in a 2-2 tie there, so that got me a push and ended my week at 3-3-1.
While I didn’t deliver a winning overall record, I’m at least trending in the right direction and got to .500. And if you went with the Jazz, that pick alone got you into the green for the week. Overall, I move to 8-11-1 on the year with my upset picks.
With another week of intense matchups on the horizon, let’s dig into my favorite upset calls.
The Pels and Jazz both face elimination on Tuesday night, and if you’re going to bet on one surviving, I’d go with New Orleans.
Utah was already down star point guard Ricky Rubio, but now they’re also going to be without backup point guard Dante Exum.
Tomorrow's May 7, 2018
That leaves Utah even more short-handed as they attempt to prolong their series in Houston. I don’t see that working out, so the Pels at +550 are your next best bet.
There is some logic to the Pels getting a win here, too. New Orleans plays at a torrid pace and has one of the best young stars in the game in Anthony Davis. If he can show up with a huge game, the Pels could keep it close and snag a win late.
The odds are obviously in favor of both Western Conference series wrapping up tonight, but at +550, I don’t mind rolling the dice on the Pels surviving for another day.
Machida enters UFC 224 as a pretty big favorite, even though both of these guys are past their prime and limp into this fight. Belfort has dropped three of his last bouts, while Machida is just 2-4 over his last six.
This fight might be a lot more evenly matched than people seem to think, while counting against a KO specialist like Belfort this much seems fairly bold.
Machida is a very dangerous opponent, and he comes in as the favorite, but I just fear Belfort’s power and his desire to go out as a winner. He’s had some health issues in the past, but he’s fighting in front of a home crowd, and Machida isn’t quite as fresh thanks to a February bout.
I think it’s close, but you’re simply getting too much value to pass up over at MyBookie.ag.
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You might be able to get some solid value if Belfort can pull out a win, but the upside in riding with a major upset like Pennington could be staggering.
Betting against Amanda Nunes feels pretty dangerous. There’s no denying that. She made Ronda Rousey look like a newbie, and she brings vicious striking to the table. However, champions were made to be taken down, and favorites lose in MMA all the time.
but Pennington is an underrated foe.
Not only has Pennington held her own against big names like Holly Holm, Cat Zingano, and Jessica Andrade, but she’s yet to be knocked out in her MMA career.
Pennington isn’t as flashy as other fighters Nunes has faced, but she actually has fantastic punching power and can also take the fight to the ground. She’s about as gritty as they come, too, as she’s only been submitted once and has taken nine bouts the distance.
I do find it difficult to see exactly how Pennington steals this one, as her quick-strike winning ability hasn’t been impressive. However, Nunes barely won her last fight, and each new title defense could be her last.
Due to Pennington’s stamina, balance, and defense, I think she’s a much tougher out than the top MMA betting sites are pegging her as. This would be an insane upset, and I think it’s one worth targeting.
There are a few MLB series you can take a look at this week, but right after scoring a big win with the Yanks, I like the idea of betting against them.
The Red Sox still lead the way in the AL East at 25-9 and shouldn’t be worried about traveling to Yankee Stadium, since they’ve gone a sparkling 14-5 on the road this year.
New York is red hot and are huge favorites to take this series, but the Red Sox have one of the best offenses in the league and may have the slight pitcher edge. Chris Sale isn’t slated to toe the rubber in this three-game series, but Boston still might have more talent on the mound and has the more efficient offense.
These games could be shootouts, but I can’t bypass the insane value I’m getting with Boston at +160.
The Predators have endured quite the fight from a feisty Jets team in their round-two series, but they ultimately have them right where they want them at home in game seven.
Nashville started the playoffs as the odds-on favorite to win the Stanley Cup this year, but an up-and-down series with Winnipeg has caused some doubt in Vegas.
I’ve been saying throughout this series just how dangerous Winnipeg is, and I even called their game-one win in Nashville. I think they are fully capable of again storming the castle and getting the big upset, which would vault them to the semifinals.
The Predators won’t be an easy out on their home ice, but Winnipeg’s offense has been a lot to handle all series. If they can jump out to an early lead and get the Predators to force the issue, they could deliver solid value with the upset win.
A week after taking seven stabs at some elite betting value via upset picks, I’ll calm things down with five. There are some very interesting MMA underdogs to track going into UFC 224, while there are also a few MLB series to considering going after.
In the end, I’m aiming high, and I think backing the Red Sox and going against Nunes are two of the best upset bids on the week. Hopefully those can land, and a couple of these other picks can propel me to a winning record.
Regardless, there are some very interesting spots for upset calls this week. Whether you agree with these picks or not, hopefully you can sniff out some winners and obtain some value. Good luck, and happy betting!
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