A month ago, coming off a trip to the NFC championship game and with 3 decent quarterbacks already in the fold (although unsigned for the following year), the Minnesota Vikings didn’t look like much of a player for Kirk Cousins’ services in 2018. Even a couple of weeks ago, Bovada made the Vikes a +1200 darkhorse to land Cousins for next season, with the Jets (-140) and Broncos (+140) the clear favorites.
Fast forward to today, however, and Minnesota is widely expected to be the team who signs Cousins when NFL free agency signing period opens next week. At the time of writing, the Vikes weren’t expected to franchise tag incumbent starter Case Keenum and were also ready to cast aside former QB-of-the-future Teddy Bridgewater and the nomadic Sam Bradford in favor of the veteran Redskins pivot.
Without Cousins, Minnesota is already one of the top candidates to win Super Bowl 53, with its +1400 odds at Bovada ranking behind only the Patriots (+500), Eagles (+950), Packers (+1100) and Steelers (+1400). Might signing Cousins vault the Vikings to the top of the NFC, or even make them the team to beat in the NFL next season?
It’s a popular theory, but I’m not convinced. Here are 3 reasons why signing Kirk Cousins wouldn’t make the Vikings Super Bowl 53 favorites.
Cousins may be the most attractive quarterback available on the open market this off-season, but I think that speaks more to the lack of decent QBs in the league right now. With all the top ones currently under contract, teams looking to improve at the pivot position don’t have many options (which is why teams like the Lions and Raiders paid king’s ransom prices to retain Matt Stafford and Derek Carr when they entered free agency.)
How good is Cousins, anyway? Would you say he’s a Top 10 quarterback in the NFL right now? I certainly wouldn’t. Yes, he threw for nearly 5,000 yards in 2016, but yardage totals can be inflated by playing for poor teams who often have to throw the ball more because they’re trailing. Indeed, Cousins’ highest-yardage games that year often came in losses, including a 449-yard effort in a 31-26 loss to the Cowboys.
Fair or not, NFL quarterbacks are mostly measured these days by championships and their win-loss records. Cousins hasn’t even made it out of the first round of the NFL playoffs in his career, and he’s 24-23-1 over the past 3 years as Washington’s everyday starter.
I’m sorry, but that’s not the resume of a quarterback who can instantly put a team over the top.
An experienced quarterback of Cousins’ caliber would make a huge difference for teams like the Broncos, Cardinals, Browns or Jets. All of those squads finished in the bottom third of the NFL in passing yards last season and, in Denver and Arizona’s cases at least, might have challenged for playoff spots if they could only move the ball through the air with any sort of competency.
But quarterback play wasn’t what held the Vikings back last year. Sure, Case Keenum looked bad in the NFC championship game against the Eagles, but even the greatest QBs can look awful when facing elite defenses (remember how mortal Tom Brady and Cam Newton looked during the Broncos’ Super Bowl run a couple of years ago.) In the regular season, Keenum was as good or better than most quarterbacks in the NFL, finishing the season with a 22:7 touchdown:interception ratio and the seventh-highest passer rating in the league.
Keenum put up those numbers despite playing in an offense that relied heavily on the running game and for a head coach who seems to publicly question his quarterback’s abilities whenever he gets the chance.
Mike Zimmer didn't exactly endorse Case Keenum today. pic.twitter.com/4aFin9rhOH
— Andrew Krammer (@Andrew_Krammer) January 23, 2018
Though the Vikings are expected to use a more aggressive offensive game plan next year under new OC John DeFilippo (replacing Pat Shurmur, now the coach of the Giants), Keenum thrived in a high-octane attack during his NCAA days in Houston. I don’t have much reason to think he wouldn’t be as effective as Cousins in the Vikings’ new offense.
Forget about being favorites to win Super Bowl 53. It’s already going to be hard enough for the Vikings to make it through what is shaping up to be a treacherous NFC next season.
Aaron Rodgers’ midseason injury (which just happened to take place on a questionable hit by the Vikings) opened the door for Minnesota to cruise to victory in the NFC North, and the Vikings ended up winning the division by 4 games. Without the Packers to contend with, Minnesota was also able to pad its record with a 5-1 mark in division play, enabling the Vikings to finish 13-3 and secure the second overall seed in the NFC playoffs. Minnesota benefited from having the fifth-easiest schedule in the league last year as well, something they won’t have in 2018 after winning their division.
Even though Green Bay was exposed last year for not having much besides Rodgers, the Pack is always a Super Bowl threat when #12 is under center. For evidence of that, look no further than the Super Bowl odds at BetOnline, where Green Bay is the second-ranked team in the NFC behind only defending champion Philadelphia.
Speaking of the Eagles, they should only be stronger next season with Carson Wentz back at the helm of their offense. The Saints (+1500 to win the Super Bowl) had the Vikings beat in the divisional round in Minnesota before that miraculous last-second touchdown by Stefon Diggs, the 49ers (+1600) did not lose last year with Jimmy Garoppolo as their starter, the Falcons (+1600) are 1 year removed from having 1 of the most prolific offenses in NFL history, and the Rams (+2000), Seahawks (+2200), Cowboys (+2500) and Panthers (+3300) should all be tough outs as well.
The Rodgers injury, a soft schedule and a flukey playoff win may have made Minnesota look better than it really was.
Although Keenum had a brilliant regular season last year, I do understand why the Vikings aren’t quite ready to commit to him as their long-term starter going forward. Cousins has played at a comparable level for a longer period of time, making him a safer bet to help this strong Minnesota defense and ground game take the next step in 2018.
Having Cousins instead of Keenum as their starting QB probably makes the Vikings better. But in no way am I ready to anoint this team as the favorite to win Super Bowl 53, or even to win the NFC. Although Cousins is the best available QB on the free agent market, he’s not a significant enough upgrade to make Minnesota the team to beat in the conference next year, especially with Rodgers back from injury and the rest of the NFC looking extremely tough to beat.
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