The first tennis Grand Slam is done, and the main highlight is that Roger Federer simply refuses to age. At the same time, Caroline Wozniacki won her first major and is back to number one in the rankings after 6 years. An exciting Australian Open is now gone, so it’s time to take a look at the Roland-Garros 2018.
The French Open will start on May 21, and the bookies already have some early odds. There’s a lot of time until the tournament, but I don’t think it’s a bad idea to take a look at the price. One can find some early value bets every now and then.
The situation in men’s tennis nowadays is really weird. The players that are supposed to be in their peak struggle in Grand Slam tournaments. At the same time, two of the members of the Big Four are struggling with injuries and all sorts of problems.
A couple of years ago, you would assume this would happen to Rodger Federer and Rafael Nadal. Surprisingly, Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray are the guys who simply can’t get a break in the past year and a half. As a result, Rodger and Rafa have won the last five Grand Slams. It makes you wonder what year it is.
Under such circumstances, it is pretty obvious who’s the favorite for the 2018 French Open. Still, let’s take a closer look at the prices for the top players, as well as a couple of potential dark horses:
Rafael Nadal – 4/5There’s no way to start with anyone else when we’re talking about the Roland-Garros. Rafa has won the tournament 10 times and is arguably the best clay court player in the history of tennis. His last trophy came in 2017 when he didn’t even lose a set.
The Spaniard retired from the Australian Open because of an injury, but this shouldn’t be a big deal according to the reports. Rafa should be back in training soon. I have no doubts that his main goal would be to hit top form for the French Open.
I would say that odds of 4/5 would be ridiculously low for any other player to win any other tournament. When it comes to Nadal and the Roland-Garros, that’s not the case.
The only reason I have doubts about such a bet is the fitness of the world’s number one. If he’s healthy, he’s winning it.
Novak Djokovic – 2/9The price for Djokovic seems too low if you take a look at the last year or so. He’s been having various issues and just got back from injury for the Australian Open. Despite some promising signs, he didn’t go too far in the tournament.
Still, the Serbian former number one is among only four people to win the French Open since 2005. In fact, Novak did so in 2016 and played in a couple of finals as well. If he can stay fit and rediscover his form, he has a chance. Despite that, the odds of 2/9 are simply not good enough, so I wouldn’t bet on it.
Dominic Thiem – 8The young Australian has reached the semi-finals of the last two editions of the French Open. The main reason is his style that’s perfectly suited for clay courts. He can hit from the baseline all day long, and he’s still only 24.
I firmly believe Dominic Thiem will eventually win the Roland-Garros. It would be hard for this to happen this year, but far from impossible. In fact, the odds of 8 or so represent solid value. A bet on Thiem is something you should certainly consider.
Stanislas Wawrinka – 10Stan Wawrinka is a curious character. He’s been highly inconsistent during his career, but has still managed to win three Grand Slam titles. One of them was the French Open in 2016, where he beat a high-flying Novak Djokovic. On top of that, the Swiss reached another final in 2017.
It’s obvious that Wawrinka likes the Roland-Garros and has the potential to do well once again. The issue is that he is a bit old. By the time of the tournament, he will be 33, which is hardly the peak of a tennis player.
Still, the Swiss is one of the guys that have a solid chance if Nadal is not at his best. At odds of 10, it won’t be the worst idea in the world to back him.
Roger Federer – 15One of the main reasons for Federer’s success in the past year or so is the sensible approach to his schedule. He is not afraid of missing big tournaments. One of them in 2017 was the French Open, and many believe he will not play this year as well. In fact, he ditched the whole clay court season last time around.
Roger hasn’t announced anything yet, but he will probably do so in the next month. I firmly believe he will not participate in 2018’s Roland-Garros. However, he might be tempted to fight for the first spot in the rankings.
This will make him the oldest player to reach number one and add another remarkable achievement to his career. He’s only 150 points or so behind Nadal right now. Since he didn’t play on clay last year, he has no points to defend, but a lot to gain. This is the reason he might, just might, go for it.
If we take a look at his career, though, his main objective was always winning majors. Even if Nadal isn’t fit, the Roland-Garros might be a step too far for the Swiss maestro. On the other hand, he would certainly be the favorite for 2018 Wimbledon if he’s fit. This is why I would advise you to skip backing Roger Federer.
The Rest of the BunchThe rest of the players in the top 20 seem way too inconsistent to have a shot at the 2018 French Open. Guys like Pablo Carreno Busta, Grigor Dimitrov, David Goffin, and Jack Sock are decent, but haven’t performed on the big stage so far. Alexander Zverev seems too raw for Grand Slams, and we have no idea when Murray will return.
In fact, I can’t see any of them winning the Roland-Garros in a couple of months (famous last words, I know).
Final PicksYou simply can’t overlook Rafael Nadal when it comes to the French Open, even at odds of 4/5. The other guy who has a shot and is priced well is Dominic Thiem. He seems to love clay and has reached the semis twice already, so 8 is a decent price.
There’s only one woman on the tour that has been consistent enough in recent years to back for the 2018 French Open, and she just became a mother. I’m talking about Serena Williams, of course, and the uncertainty around her makes the women’s French Open extremely hard to predict.
In the past 10 years, there were as many as 8 different players that won the trophy. Only Serena Williams and Maria Sharapova managed to do so twice. It seems the tournament is wide open and the positive news is that the odds are pretty good, no matter which player you pick.
Serena Williams – 5Serena is the most decorated player in the Open era of tennis, with 23 Grand Slam titles to her name. Three of them came at the Roland-Garros, and she would’ve been an exceptional value at odds of 5 under normal circumstances.
However, she gave birth to her first child a couple of months ago. Serena has the ambition to start training soon, and will probably play in the 2018 French Open. It will be extremely hard to hit top form, but she has proven her character time and time again.
As it stands, I wouldn’t bet on Serena Williams, but I would certainly follow her progress. If it’s going well, it could be worth it to give it a shot later on.
Simona Halep – 6The Romanian was in fine shape in the Australian Open, but ended up losing the final and the number one spot in the rankings to Carolina Wozniacki — a tough pill to swallow, for sure. Still, Simona Halep has no reason to worry.
She’s 26 and reaching her peak. I fully expect her to be one of the best players in the world in the next couple of years. As for the 2018 French Open, Simona is one of the big favorites. She likes the clay courts and has already reached the final twice, including in 2017.
This is why I see her as one of the best bets right now. I believe backing Simona Halep at odds of 6 represents a good opportunity.
Garbine Muguruza – 10Garbine is one of the rising stars in women’s tennis. She is only 24, but has already won Wimbledon and the French Open. She was also number one in the rankings during the second half of 2017. This is the reason she is always on the list of potential winners.
The problem is, she didn’t perform well in Australia. Muguruza was knocked out in the second round, which is an indication that her shape is not the best.
There is a lot of time until the Roland-Garros, though, and she certainly is better on clay compared to hard courts. If Garbine manages to find her feet, she certainly can win the 2018 French Open.
Maria Sharapova – 10I’m surprised that Sharapova is among the top five favorites of the bookies. She certainly is a formidable force on her day, but hasn’t won a Grand Slam since 2014.
Obviously, her two-year suspension for doping violations is part of the reason, but she hasn’t been the same since. Sharapova has won the French Open twice already, but I don’t see her going further than the quarterfinals this time around.
Jelena Ostapenko – 12The Latvian prodigy Jelena Ostapenko stormed the tennis scene in 2017 by winning the French Open. She was only 19 back then, but won plenty of admirers with her aggressive style.
At the end of 2017, she was declared the WTA Tour Most Improved Player of the year for her achievements. Ostapenko will certainly play a huge role in many Grand Slams to come. She has the quality to repeat her victory and she has more experience in 2018.
The odds of 12 are more than decent, as Ostapenko has already shown what she can do.
The Rest of the BunchThere are plenty of dark horses that could upset the odds at the 2018 French Open. The young Madison Keys has been doing well recently, Wozniacki will be flying high after winning her first Grand Slam, and the likes of Angelique Kerber, Victoria Azarenka, and a couple of others are always dangerous.
Still, the one I find the most prepared to have a good run is Elina Svitolina. The young Ukrainian has developed well in the last year or two. Clay courts are her favorite, and she already has two quarterfinal appearances on the French Open. At odds of around 12, she might be worth a shot.
With so many question marks around Serena Williams, the Roland-Garros seems wide open. This is why I would go for two players that are priced over 10 – last year’s winner Jelena Ostapenko and Elina Svitolina. Both lack experience, but the ability is there. If you want a safer approach, Simona Halep seems like the top favorite.
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