I took a break from the sports upset picks game this past week. Sometimes it’s good to get some rest and relaxation, hit the reset button, and try tackling sports betting with a fresh perspective.
In my week away, there were some pretty big underdogs that came through. The one that stands out the most comes from week 10 in the NFL, where the Cleveland Browns defended their home turf and took down the Atlanta Falcons.
The pricing wasn’t through the roof, but few saw that coming. The Titans picked up a massive upset of their own, while the Bills and Cowboys could have also won some people some cash.
I wasn’t here to lend my advice on any of those contests (I really didn’t like any of those teams), but I’m back to try to add to the win column.
Let’s first take a look back at my last active week of picking upsets and then move ahead to a few underdogs worth targeting in the sports betting world this week.
Two weeks ago, I walked into a five-pack of sports picks with a 44-68-2 underdog picks record.
I’ll be the first to admit that isn’t a great mark, but keep in mind that we’re talking purely underdog bets (+100 value or greater), and some of them have me aiming rather high.
I tried tacking on five new wins two weeks ago, and this is how things played out.
Oakland Raiders over San Francisco 49ers +146
Pittsburgh Steelers over Baltimore Ravens+135 
Houston Texans over Denver Broncos+120
Philadelphia Flyers over Anaheim Ducks+114
Washington Wizards over Memphis Grizzlies+1
Boy, the Raiders felt like a value play but proceeded to get crushed in San Francisco, 34-3. The 49ers were starting a third-string quarterback and won by 31 points. The Jon Gruden return tour continues to go off the rails.
Fortunately, I had my other two NFL picks pegged, as the Steelers and Texans both returned solid betting value and scored big road wins.
I love eyeing road dogs due to the stellar value. You just need to make sure you’re dealing with a superior team, and if they’re running hot, all the better.
I am not a hockey expert in the least, but I saw value with the Flyers over the Ducks. Luckily, they came through, and if you rolled with my upset picks two weeks ago, you were at worst 3-2 on the week and obtained some decent value.
Washington was my only other gaffe, but two weeks later, it’s not shocking since they’ve won three games on the entire season. They have been quite bad.
The 3-2 run isn’t amazing, but I will always take a win. That moves me to 47-70-2 with my upset picks on the year, and I’ll try to return even more value this week.
This is a great spot to start your week 11 NFL betting, as the high-powered Chiefs and Rams collide out of state in Mexico City. In a game between two of the most explosive offenses in football at a neutral site, this very well may mean all bets are off.
I tend to favor the Chiefs in this matchup, though. For one, you’re getting solid value for possibly the best team in football, and they’re not even technically the “road” team in this spot.
Kansas City does not have a very good defense, but they can run the ball and score from anywhere on the field. The Rams can do the same, but they’ve shown a little more vulnerability, losing in New Orleans and nearly dropping several other contests.
The Chiefs have one loss on the year, and that was in a crazy 43-40 shootout with New England. Something tells me they show up in a big way in this spot, finally proving they are the best team the NFL has to offer.
Before we get the Chiefs vs. Rams in Mexico City, there is a pretty tense NFC clash in Seattle to be had between the Seahawks and the Green Bay Packers.
Both of these teams should be desperate thanks to pretty pedestrian records through the first 10 weeks, while they’ll also have less time than usual to prepare on a short week.
Seattle does get the initial edge with this meeting going down at home, but a mediocre 1-2 home mark may take a big bite out of the impact of the Seahawks playing in front of their home crowd.
I don’t tend to make a habit of betting against Aaron Rodgers, while Green Bay has to be nearing its first road victory of the season.
They almost got two of them in brutal spots against LA and New England recently, and the Packers need to pick it up if they’re going to make a playoff run.
The same can be said for the Seahawks, but after another tight loss to the rival Rams, it’s possible the wind is out of their sails.
Expect a close, low-scoring game, but don’t be shocked if Green Bay emerges with the win and some solid betting value.
The NFC North is potentially going to be incredibly chaotic over the course of the last seven weeks of the 2018 NFL season.
Minnesota could ensure that with a big win in Chicago this week, and everything they’ve shown lately suggests they can make that happen.
Kirk Cousins leads a very dynamic Vikings offense that can kill you through the air but also has the tools to do damage on the ground.
That’s a stiff test for the Bears, who have Khalil Mack at their disposal but have been getting by on weaker opponents like the Bills, Jets, and Lions lately.
Chicago can’t really help who they’ve been facing, but it’s fair to suggest they haven’t been as impressive as their big scoring efforts and 6-3 record might suggest.
Minnesota probably needs to snag a win in this spot if they have any real hopes of winning the NFC North. With a lot of noise still to come in this division, I think they do that this week.
I’ll admit logic does work against Houston at the moment. They’re just 5-7 through 12 games, and the Carmelo Anthony experiment has already been ruled a failure.
That’s bad news for a team that lost two forwards in free agency and has struggled with injuries to start the year.
It’s even worse when they have to go play in Denver, where a good Nuggets team is 6-2 to start the young NBA season.
That’s what makes the Rockets an underdog, but their +150 price tag at GTbets.eu is quite attractive when you factor in their star power and offensive system.
True, they’re not connecting at the rate we saw a season ago, but if the shots can start falling, the Rockets can still turn this thing around.
The Nuggets are probably the better team at the moment, but Houston does have the pieces to combat them.
Nobody in Denver can truly slow down James Harden or Chris Paul, while CP3 and Clint Capela are suitable answers for the likes of Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic.
Personally, I don’t kick talented NBA teams when they’re down. I wonder when the timing is right to hop on them and maximize value.
If the Rockets were favored here, I wouldn’t touch them, but the fact that Vegas prices this game like this makes me think the public could be underestimating this squad.
My last upset pick of the week has me heading to the UFC, where Darren Elkins (24-6) will take on Ricardo Lamas (18-7) at UFC Fight Night 140 this Saturday.
Elkins enters as a pretty big underdog, but he’s a versatile fighter and is a flat-out warrior. The dude has virtually no quit in him and is tough as nails. He’s been KO’d twice and handed an early exit three times total in 30 matches.
That’s pretty impressive, while he’s also been pretty hot. He did lose his last fight (decision vs. Alexander Volkanovski), but he had ripped off six straight wins prior and had taken down some big names in the process.
The aim is for Elkins to add another to the pile, as Lamas is aging and taking some lumps but is by no means an easy out.
Vegas is making that message loud and clear with this line, but let’s keep in mind that Elkins does not go quietly into the night. That, and Lamas is a couple years older and may be regressing with two straight defeats and just a 2-3 mark over his last five bouts.
This is a classic example of two fairly evenly-matched fighters, but one (Elkins) is trending upward, while the older fighter may be nearing the end. Look for a nasty bout, but this +195 price is just too good to pass up in favor of Elkins.
I said all summer that I could not wait for football and basketball to return. Those two sports betting genres are my bread and butter, but they also offer up more upset picks than other sports tend to.
I’ve fared well in those areas, and that’s why you’ll see more NFL and NBA underdog picks litter my weekly column.
This week, I’m high on the Chiefs, Packers, and Vikings, as they all figure to be the better teams in their matchup and also offer value. The kicker is that they’re all on the road, which certainly can complicate things.
In addition to my trio of NFL upset picks, I like the value via Elkins at UFC Fight Night 140, and I’ll take the Rockets at +150. Houston hasn’t been great, but they’re still very talented, and shedding Carmelo Anthony perhaps lightens the mood in their locker room.
Whether you like these picks or not, thanks for stopping by, and I wish you luck in your sports wagers this week!
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