There were some solid upsets in the world of sports over the past week.
Literally last night, the Sacramento Kings took down the Oklahoma City Thunder, the Indiana Pacers ousted the Utah Jazz (sans Victor Oladipo), and the Charlotte Hornets beat the Boston Celtics.
What didn’t happen, of course, is the big upset I called a week ago and was crossing my fingers to see in one of the most prolific NFL games in league history.
The Kansas City Chiefs were in position to force overtime or beat the Los Angeles Rams, but two late Patrick Mahomes interceptions derailed a magnificent performance.
KC had to settle for simply putting up 51 points and almost beating the Rams. I guess the silver lining is that anyone who picked the Chiefs to beat the spread could have won money going that route (if they found +3.5 lines or greater).
I whiffed on the Chiefs, and that wasn’t my only bad upset pick call. I’ll be trying to improve this week, but as always, I’ll start with a full review of last week’s picks.
Let’s recap the past week to see where things went right and where they went painfully wrong.
Kansas City Chiefs over Los Angeles Rams+114
Green Bay Packers over Seattle Seahawks+117
Minnesota Vikings over Chicago Bears+125
Houston Rockets over Denver Nuggets+150 
Darren Elkins over Ricardo Lamas+195
The end result is really all that matters, but let’s not lose hope when the logic is there for some strong upset picks.
Minnesota didn’t come particularly close to delivering the goods, and Lamas handled Elkins better than expected, but the Chiefs and Packers nearly returned elite betting value.
Both of those teams had leads late on the road and simply couldn’t come through in the final moments. If they did, scoring +114 and +117 wins would have been pretty sweet.
The 1-4 record is a bit of a gut punch and had my season upset picks mark looking rougher than ever (48-74-2), but I did score a big win with the Rockets (+150) upsetting the Nuggets in Denver last week.
I’ll take the win and march into a new week of underdog picks:
I see a lot to like in the NFL this week, starting with Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers in a trip to Tampa Bay.
Neither of these teams are very good on the surface, while the Bucs will turn their offense back over to Jameis Winston for the second time this season.
This musical chairs situation Tampa is rolling with under center isn’t good for continuity and is bound to get head coach Dirk Koetter fired.
San Francisco has been positively dreadful (0-5) on the road this year, but they still run a pretty good offensive system and will be hard-pressed to push for their third win of the year. Tampa Bay is the perfect amount of dysfunction for them to capitalize on.
This one has the makings of a classic shootout, and thanks to a friendly +160 price, I’m all over the Niners this week.
Don’t look now, but the defending Super Bowl champs are flat-out reeling. Philly has dropped three of their last four games and hasn’t looked very good on either side of the football.
Getting housed by the Saints will do that to you, but is it so bad in Philly right now that you should confide in the Giants to stage the upset?
Sure, why not?
New York is impossible to trust, but the Eagles are in a bad way, and divisional clashes are always at risk of going in a direction you least expect.
The Giants have also won two straight games and seem to have suddenly discovered their offensive potential.
I’m capitalizing on Philadelphia’s struggles and seeing if New York can keep the positive momentum going.
On a related note, you might want to check out my colleague’s post on who’s going to win the NFC East this season.
Another team going very much in the wrong direction is Cincinnati, as Andy Dalton and company have dropped two straight and four of their last five.
The Bengals have looked horrendous on defense pretty much all year, but they’re fresh off of a game where they allowed a rookie quarterback to gash them for 117 yards on the ground.
They’ll be at home in week 12, but they’ll host a hungry Browns team that should be well prepared after spending last week on a bye.
Baker Mayfield is fresh off a huge home win over the Falcons, and Cleveland will be eyeing their first road win of the year.
A big divisional win here could vault Cleveland to third in the AFC North and spice up wild card talk. I’m not sold on that just yet, but the Browns are capable of sending Cincinnati into a downward spiral. Of course, it’s fair to say they’re already in one.
I’ve been rolling with Green Bay an awful lot this year, which shows you that Vegas has gone against them quite a bit this year.
Well, to put it a bit more accurately, the top NFL betting sites have just priced Green Bay the way bettors view them, and it’s been painfully accurate.
The Packers are just 4-5-1 on the year and haven’t won on the road yet in 2018. Can you sense the trend here? All of these teams have been garbage away from home, but the Packers of all teams absolutely need this game to stay alive in the race for a playoff spot.
I don’t want to bet against Aaron Rodgers, while Green Bay probably should have won the previous meeting with the Vikings. Minnesota has the clear edge at their home field, but both teams will have their backs against the wall.
Green Bay is talented enough to get the job done and save their season. At a cool +150, I’ll bet on them pulling it off this week.
My last upset pick of the week comes from GTbets, where the Clippers offer very mild value at a -103 price.
Usually, I like to aim a bit higher, and I do note that LA is on the road here, but they are facing a bad Wizards team that has proven to be quite dysfunctional.
John Wall just got in trouble for blowing up in practice recently, while Washington hasn’t been able to defend en route to a horrific 5-11 start. This was supposed to be a team capable of competing for a championship, and yet Washington looks, well, bad.
The value isn’t through the roof, but betting against the Wizards in any capacity is far from a poor decision these days.
I’m chasing all of the road dogs this week. That is quite often where you’ll find a lot of the best betting value, as home teams typically get the job done – especially when they’re favored and figure to be the better team.
I’m not sure that’s really the case in most of my upset picks for this week, though. You could make a strong case for every single team I’ve backed to be the better team in said matchups.
Only time will tell if that’s the case, but I don’t need to be right about that. I just need to nail a few of these underdog plays.
Hopefully, we can get some winners here, and it helps you cash in the process. However you bet, I wish you luck. Enjoy the games this week!
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