Friday, September 28, 2018

Week 4 NFL Betting – Free Picks for the Weekend’s Games

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Week 4 NFL Betting – Free Picks for the Weekend’s Games

Three weeks in, and we’re flying through the NFL season. And while nobody is surprised to see the Rams undefeated and looking sharp in the process, many are stunned and even miffed by some other developments taking place around the league.

For example, did you expect the Dolphins to already be two games up in the AFC East with a chance to go three up on New England this weekend? And what about the NFC North? It’s not the Vikings or the Packers, but it’s the Bears who are leading the division.

As for the Kansas City Chiefs- well, they look like they can’t be stopped. Those who were unsure if Patrick Mahomes had the maturity and skill set to excel in this league can all stop wondering and start accepting the reality.

The dude is a flamethrower and will be the frontrunner to win the MVP until somebody starts slowing him down.

But as all sports bettors know, things can change at the drop of the hat, and every week is unique. Every Sunday during the NFL season represents a brand-new opportunity to make some money.

Think about it.

You’re probably planning on tuning into the action all day anyway, so why not throw a few wagers down and spice things up?

Don’t worry about doing any research or breaking down any film or data, because I already did that for you. I scoured the prices at the best NFL betting sites, and despite the linemakers being great at what they do, I’m confident there are a few lines we can take advantage of.

So if you are looking to be guided on where to go with your picks this Sunday, just keep reading below!

I’ll tell you exactly what I think and why.

Odds Disclaimer Box 1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears

Believe it or not, Ryan Fitzpatrick became the first quarterback in NFL history to throw for 400+ yards in three consecutive games. Unfortunately for him and the Bucs, most of those yards came late in the second half while trying to play catch-up, so take it for what it’s worth.

Anyone who watched Monday Night Football this past week saw Fitzy toss three picks before the 2nd quarter had even ended. On the road, the Steelers put up a “30 spot”before heading into the locker room to listen to a halftime speech.

I’d even argue that at times, the Bucs looked a heck of a lot like the paltry squad that most of us anticipated them being during the 2018 regular season. Tampa rushed 16 times for just 63 yards, they turned the ball over four times, and they allowed Big Ben to pick them apart for 353 yards while completing 79% of his passes.

I never expected this defense to be any good, and quite frankly, they have been dreadful for the most part all year. And while this offense started out hotter than the sun, I believe their fall from grace gets expedited this Sunday when they suit up at Soldier Field.

I don’t believe for one minute that Khalil Mack and company are going to let a 35-year-old Harvard grad come into their stadium and light them up.

To be honest, as much as I envision “Fitzmagic” struggling, I’m confident that the situation gets even bleaker if Dirk Koetter has the nerve and audacity to insert Jameis Winston into the starting lineup, as some rumors have leaked.

Koetter knows which Bucs QB will start; he just won’t tell anybody outside of the locker room.

I fully expect Jameis to remain on the sidelines, but regardless of which signal-caller receives the nod, I don’t see it going well on Sunday.

This Bears defense is nasty, and expecting Tampa Bay to be able to come in and move the chains consistently just isn’t that realistic to me.

Matt Nagy has enough creativity on offense thanks to the steady progressions being made by Mitchell Trubisky, leading me to believe that the Bears take care of business here without much trepidation.

PICK Bears (-3)-110
Cincinnati Bengals at Atlanta Falcons

The Atlanta Falcons are coming off an emotional overtime loss to their division rivals, the New Orleans Saints. While that was going on, the Cincinnati Bengals were getting beat in Carolina, as they allowed Christian McCaffrey to run wild all afternoon.

Now the Bengals have to play another non-conference road game in a loud and raucous stadium, not to mention the Falcons have been sleeping in their own beds for nearly a full month.

I understand that the Falcons are really banged up and missing key starters all over the field, but hang on a second.

Bengals RB Joe Mixon is extremely unlikely to be in uniform this Sunday, and star wideout A.J. Green is nursing a pelvis injury that will almost certainly keep him from being at 100%. And while Andy Dalton will have less than his full arsenal of weapons, Matt Ryan will have the benefit of throwing balls to Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley, the latter who exploded in Week 3 for 7-146-3.

The Bengals are allowing 25.7 points per game, and that number probably balloons after Sunday afternoon.

Cincy has back-to-back home games looming in Weeks 5 and 6 against the Dolphins and Steelers respectively, and perhaps I’ll like their chances of performing more favorably in either of those scenarios.

But coming off a tough road loss and being asked to travel to Atlanta to play an angry squad who lost a heartbreaker in OT- that just seems like it’s above and beyond what Marvin Lewis and his team are capable of.

Falcons head coach Dan Quinn is a good leader, and there is no way he lets his players overlook the Bengals.

Look for Atlanta to win this game handily and get back to .500 on the season.

PICKFalcons (-4.5)-105
Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys

While it was a difficult and disappointing first two weeks for the Detroit Lions, Matt Patricia finally got his first win as a head coach in a big, big way. Week 3 witnessed the Lions beat up on Patricia’s former crew on Sunday Night Football in front of the entire football community.

And while the Patriots offense seemed out of sorts and discombobulated, the Lions’ Week 4 opponent’s offensive rhythm might not be any more fluid.

The Cowboys offensive unit is a total mess right now, as Dak Prescott has failed to throw for more than 170 yards in a single game thus far.

While it seems that Dallas is reeling before our eyes, perhaps the Lions can parlay theirpositive momentum gained from defeating the Patriots into a good stretch of football.

Week 4 presents a new challenge for Detroit, as their franchise quarterback makes his return to the town where he played his high school football.

Undoubtedly, Matthew Stafford will have plenty of friends and family members in the crowd at AT&T Stadium when this game kicks off at 1:00 pm EST on Sunday.

I expect the former standout at Highland Park HS to put up big numbers, just as he always has against the Cowboys. Stafford is 2-1 in 3 career starts against Dallas, which includes averaging 329.3 passing yards per game.

I’m not necessarily forecasting that Detroit is able to run the ball with success or that Prescott lays another egg leading the offense.

But I’d be okay taking Detroit at +3 if I had to lay -110 like atypical NFL wager suggests. Instead, BetOnline.ag has Detroit listed at +3, but we get that number at the handsome price of +103.

Confidently take the free juice and get ready to see a closely-contested game, one in which the Lions should have the slight edge.

PICKLions (+3)+103
Buffalo Bills at Green Bay Packers

The Packers got thumped last week in Washington, falling to 1-1-1 on the season. The Bills are coming off the biggest upset in the NFL in the last 23 years after they rocked the Vikings 27-6 in Minnesota.

So it appears that all the positive vibes are working in Buffalo’s favor, as Josh Allen finally settled down and looked like a poised NFL quarterback. Green Bay’s D got exposed last Sunday, allowing a 33-year-old running back to go off for 120 yards on just 19 carries, including a couple of scores.

LeSean McCoy has vehemently stated that he’ll be playing when the Bills walk onto Lambeau Field at 1:00 pm EST, so perhaps the Bills have enough “good things going” right now to actually pull off another big upset.

Well, you want my opinion?

Because the way I see it- I’m saying there’s not a chance. I’m saying that Aaron Rodgers comes storming out of the gates and completely bulldozes Sean McDermott’s squad.

The Bills might be riding high after their impressive showing last week against the Vikes, but I’m extremely cautious in my thinking that the Bills will have a game plan in place that will be able to score enough points this time around.

This game sets up as the perfect opportunity for Mike McCarthy to get his team back on track, as the Buffalo defense allowed 78 points over their first two games. Don’t fall victim into thinking that because Mike Zimmer wasn’t prepared last weekend that suddenly Bills defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier has an intimidating or stout group.

Remember when Cardinals coach Dennis Green made the famously replayed post-game comment in regard to the Chicago Bears? You know, the one that went like this.

“They are who we thought they were!”

Well, I’m saying that after this week’s game in Green Bay, we’ll go back to thinking that the Bills are the inadequate and soft football team we all thought they were before last week’s surprise.

I’m rolling with the Pack to win this one going away, and laying 104 as opposed to 110 is just the cherry on top!

PICKPackers (-10)-104
Final Thoughts

I can’t wait for Sunday morning to arrive, as the 1:00 pm EST slate of games has enticing matchups everywhere you look. I’ll be following the action closely, as all four games I’m targeting this week fall into that time slot.

But that doesn’t mean you can’t place any wagers on the late-afternoon games, as there is a four-pack of contests scheduled to take place. And don’t forget about Sunday Night Football, as the Ravens and Steelers will clash in an AFC North confrontation that promises to be exhilarating,to say the least.

And with all that being said, the Chiefs playing on Monday Night Football is actually what I’m most looking forward to in Week 4!

Don’t think for a second that I won’t have a detailed and in-depth preview into what I imagine will take place when Kansas City takes their high-flying act to Denver. My betting advice for the MNF showdown will be available on Monday morning, so bookmark this page to make sure you don’t miss out!

Until then, enjoy the games on Sunday!

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