After watching the tournament last week, it’s pretty obvious that picking a winner on the PGA Tour is tough. I mean, did you think that Satoshi Kodaira had what it takes to win on golf’s biggest stage? The guy had never broken 70 in 14 PGA Tour starts, so how on Earth were we supposed to predict he could win?
Relax, folks, we weren’t, and that’s the point. It’s time to dig a little deeper and look a little further down on the betting sheet. I am talking about the matchups and the props.
It’s time to find out where the real value is. The good news for you is that I already did the dirty work. All you have to do is read along.
This week, we are looking at the Valero Texas Open. The players face a tough task at the Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio, which is no bargain for even the top players in the world. There are a few essentials to playing this golf course well. Knowing them will help us unlock who to target and what to look for.
Basically, I want to spend the next few sections explaining where I think you and I can turn a profit. Picking a few players to win would just be throwing our money against the wall, hoping something sticks.
That’s not how I approach betting the PGA Tour. I look at the data and proceed accordingly. Combining past results with how a player is trending coming in can tell me a lot about how a player will perform. Once I get a feeling for how things will play out, I look at the odds of how a player will finish, and I look at the matchups. For me, that’s the best way to attack a PGA Tour event.
I’m not saying to never bet on golfers to win the tournament. I’m just saying not to fall into the habit of strictly picking guys to win the tournament, because more often than not, you’ll wind up going home empty-handed.
TPC San Antonio is a brutal test of golf, especially off the tee. When you realize that Greg Norman designed the course with Sergio Garcia as a consultant, it’s no wonder that a precedence is placed on driving the golf ball. The “Shark” and “El Niño” are two of the purest drivers of the golf ball the game has ever seen.
However, it’s not just about accuracy this week. In fact, distance carries a lot of weight at the par-72, 7,435-yard golf course that is equipped with four par 5s. As difficult as the par 4s and 3s are, players simply have to take advantage of the par 5s in order to play well.
If you look at the results over the last three years, you’ll see what I mean. For example, 2015 Valero Texas Open champion Jimmy Walker was 12 under on the par 5s that week, despite winning the tournament at -11.
Last year, Kevin Chappell won by a single shot. He shot -5 under on the weekend, thanks to playing the par 5s at 6 under during Saturday and Sunday’s rounds.
All this means is that I want to take a long look at guys that drive the golf ball well and know how to take care of business on the par 5s. Let’s see how this translates into what I like at Bovada’s sportsbook.
Remember, ladies and gentlemen, this isn’t the Masters or the U.S. Open. There weren’t pages worth of prop bets to sift through. Finding value this week was difficult, as there really just wasn’t a heck of a lot jumping out at me. On the other hand, I did spot a couple wagers I wouldn’t mind splashing around with. Take a look.
This may not seem like a great price, as I know Ryan Moore may not be a household name across America. But don’t get it twisted; the 35-year-old member of the 2016 Ryder Cup Team should be a force to be reckoned with at the Oaks course.
Moore has only played in the event twice since they moved to TPC San Antonio in 2010. He finished 18th at the event a year ago and 8th in 2012. He is by no means the longest guy on tour, but hear me out.
He’s 44th on tour in par-5 scoring average, ahead of the likes of Jason Day and Gary Woodland. You don’t have to be the longest guy out there to know how to birdie par 5s, and Moore has exemplified that.
He’s 17th on tour in proximity from 100-125 yards. He ranks 2nd on the PGA Tour in proximity from inside 100 yards when in the rough. He’s 13th when scrambling from inside 30 yards and is 3rd on the entire PGA Tour in putting from 10-15 feet.
Even though Ryan Moore is laying up on a high percentage of par 5s, he still knows how to get the job done. The former standout at UNLV has quietly sandwiched his t-28th at the Masters with a top 5 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and a t-16th-place finish last week at the RBC Heritage. He has just the right amount of momentum to ride into San Antonio this week clicking on all cylinders.
Moore isn’t going to knock your socks off with his length, and he isn’t going to be the flashiest guy out there. What he will do is hit fairways and greens, roll in the occasional putt, and find himself on the first page of the leaderboard come Sunday.
Here is another candidate I project will have a good week and finish in the top 10. Brendan Steele has the right type of game to flourish at TPC San Antonio, and he has proved that. Don’t believe me; just look at the numbers.
Brendan Steele has won three tournaments on the PGA Tour in his career – the 2016 and 2017 Safeway Open, and the 2011 Valero Texas Open at this very same course. He backed up his victory in 2011 by finishing 4th the following year, not to mention an 8th in 2015 and a 13th in 2016.
I know Steele missed the cut in his last start at the Masters, but that doesn’t worry me at all. He was 9-9 in cuts made before that, including 6 top-25s and a pair of top-10s. Other than his 49th at the Genesis Open and his MC at Augusta, Steele has been in the top 29 in every event he has teed it up in this year.
He is a consistent ball striker and can thrive on long golf courses that require a combination of distance and accuracy.
He is 19th on tour in par-5 scoring average and 11th in driving distance. He’s pumping it out there at an average of 309.4 yards, which is enabling him to hit 71.24% of the greens, good enough for 8th on tour. He’s also 8th in birdie average and 10th in par-4 scoring. It’s no wonder Steele has quietly elevated himself to the no. 46 slot in the Official World Golf Ranking.
For all my superstitious readers, you know who the 46th-ranked player in the world was heading into last week’s event? I’ll give you a huge hint. His name was Satoshi Kodaira.
I am not promising Brendan repeats history and wins this week, but at +275 to finish top 10? I’ll take my chances with the long-hitting California native.
I must preface this by saying that picking the winner of a head-to-head matchup is no exact science. Golf is a funny game, and anything can happen when two world-class players are pitted against one another. With that being said, here is one where I think we have a bit of an edge.
The average fan at home may think Snedeker is a lock, as they may not even know who Beau Hossler is, but I beg to differ. In Brandt Snedeker’s past 5 events, he’s gone MC-31st-MC-87th-23rd.
On the flip side, Hossler has logged a runner-up at the Houston Open and a 16th at the RBC Heritage in his last two starts, clearly showing some signs of life.
I am not trying to debate or compare the pedigree of a wily veteran like Brandt Snedeker with that of a 23-year-old rookie on tour. What I am doing is simply staring at the facts in front of me.
Snedeker is coming off an awful sternum injury that forced him to miss the last 5 months of the 2017 season. He’s still getting his feet back under him, not playing anywhere near the level of golf we are used to seeing from the “pop-stroking” Snedeker.
Hossler, the former Texas Longhorn, is playing the best golf of his professional career, and now enters a tournament where he will have plenty of support. I actually think Snedeker is on the verge of playing some good golf, but Hossler is already there.
His average drive (297.8 yards) is a full 10 yards longer than Brandt’s average drive, and that’s enough to push me over the edge.
I won’t go crazy with this matchup, but I do expect Hossler to finish ahead of Snedeker.
It’s not the strongest field we’ll see all year, but that doesn’t mean we can’t take advantage of a couple mispriced lines. The Valero Texas Open is going to be played this weekend regardless, so we might as well try and make a few bucks while we’re watching it.
After scouring the betting sheets at the top online sportsbooks, there wasn’t a ton of value that was staring me in the face. That didn’t stop me from lifting up the hood and trying to find any betting angle that I thought could be validated. I came up with a couple wagers that I believe have some upside and a chance to pay off.
There are no guarantees in sports betting, especially in a sport as volatile as golf. All you can do is the research and homework and come up with the best plan of attack possible.
Or in this case, you can just read a blog from a golf expert that already did that for you, and you can follow his advice!
If I win you all the money, just come back next week when I break down the Zurich Classic of New Orleans’ team event!
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