Do you like to breathe? Of course, you do, and so do I. But, as necessary as it is for you and me, imagine how important the ability to catch your breath and stay fresh is when you’re in a fight! Furthermore, in mixed martial arts, athletes must be able to breathe through their noses, since open mouths lead to easier knockouts.
When betting on MMA, obviously technical fighting skills are most important, but these warriors can’t apply those skills if they don’t have the strength, speed, and endurance required to utilize their abilities when they need them most. The longer a fight goes on, the more critical conditioning becomes. A well-conditioned fighter will appear more mentally composed as well.
Remember, the mental game isn’t flexible. It’s constant. A strong mental game isn’t realized on fight night, but developed and implemented in rigorous strength and conditioning sessions during a fighter’s training camp. If an athlete has the discipline to stay in peak shape, an MMA bettor can expect that combatant to be mentally tough during the contest as well. Plus, the higher the endurance, the more difficult a fighter is to finish.
In this article, I am going to address three aspects of training and fitness that play a role in determining the outcome of a match. These variables are strength, speed, and power. I’d like to discuss the significance of each of these factors, as well as why you should consider them when placing a bet.
Strength is defined by the National Academy of Sports Medicine as
In fighting, strength is required for defending against an opponent’s physical prowess in order to overcome them. It plays a crucial role in areas of combat such as the clinch, wrestling for control against the cage, and ground fighting/grappling.
Strength can also affect endurance. A stronger fighter will exert less energy when the fight is in close. We’ve seen this most commonly with fighters such as Matt Hughes, or, more recently, Khabib Nurmagomedov. These abnormally strong grappling-based competitors are able to hold their opponents down, forcing them to expend enormous energy to escape, while the stronger fighter bides their time and wears them down.
When determining how vital strength will be when placing your bets, you want to decide what type of fight the contest is most likely to become. If two striking-based, high-movement athletes are competing, it is not expected to play a significant role in the outcome. But if the competitors tend to prefer grappling, it is definitely an important consideration.
In MMA, weight cutting is a prevalent practice that demands the bettor’s attention. Fighters will significantly dehydrate themselves in order to meet the weight limit, then rehydrate after. The reason for doing this is to be larger than the opponent on fight night, giving the larger man a strength advantage. So, when researching opponent strength, search for their “walking around” weight and plan accordingly.
Speed kills. It’s that simple. More often than not in a bout, the stronger fighter isn’t the faster of the two competitors. Particularly when a match is anticipated to be a stand-up battle, speed can be the most critical factor at play. While there are additional aspects that play a significant role in utilizing speed, such as agility and timing, I will save those thoughts for another blog.
When I talk about speed in MMA, I am mostly referring to reaction time and hand speed. Footwork is also essential, particularly for fighters that need to get in and out of range of their opponents quickly. A speed advantage can be used to counter an adversary with a longer reach, and is of the utmost importance to fighters whose style is that of a counter-puncher.
Moving into the range of your opponent and throwing a punch or kick opens you up for counter attacks. A significant speed advantage can allow a fighter to dart into range, land their damage, and get out of range before the slower opponent can react. In this way, the combination of hand and foot speed can help overcome a strength or size disadvantage.
Once again, how much importance you should place on the speed of a fighter depends on how the fight will most likely play out. If a match-up appears to be destined to be a stand-up affair, prioritize speed over strength. Some good examples of bouts where a smaller man utilized a speed advantage to overcome the size and strength of an opponent are Matt Hughes vs. B.J. Penn, Demetrious Johnson vs. John Dodson, and Anderson Silva vs. Forrest Griffin.
I’ve mentioned that strength and speed are both crucial variables in a fighter’s conditioning, but the longer a fight goes on, the more each of those attributes decreases. For this reason, endurance may be the most important aspect of strength and conditioning. If an athlete is fortunate enough to dispatch their opponent in the first round, it may not matter how much stamina they have, but with each passing minute, endurance plays a bigger and bigger role.
Endurance can be a tricky thing to predict, as it’s often dependent upon where the fight takes place. The conditioning required to train for striking is different than what it takes to have strong grappling stamina. So, most fighters tend to be better suited for one or the other.
A fighter that can easily kickbox for five rounds may be absolutely gassed after a single round on their back, underneath a superior wrestler. A Jiu-Jitsu expert may not have the wind to stand in front of a boxer that keeps moving forward throwing punches.
Some fighters use their endurance as a weapon, purposely fighting at a pace that makes their opponents uncomfortable to tire them out more quickly. The Diaz brothers are both fan-favorites that take this approach. They continue to plod forward, throwing a high volume of strikes, without much concern about throwing strong punches. The objective is just to keep the opponent engaged to wear them out, then finish them with an accumulation of smaller punches rather than one big knockout shot.
As the competitor’s lungs burn and the lactic acid builds in the muscles, an out of condition athlete becomes helpless, and they begin breathing through their mouth. An open mouth is more susceptible to a knockout. The winded fighter will think less clearly and be less responsive to attacks.
So, make sure to always do your due diligence in researching a fighter’s previous bouts and how their stamina held up. If you are judging two heavyweights that are unlikely to need more than one round, it may not be the most crucial factor. But, if it’s a title fight (five rounds instead of the typical three), or involving fighters with less one-punch knockout power, you’ll want to bet on the option with the more substantial gas tank.
There are so many variables that determine the outcome of a mixed martial arts match that it would be impossible to list them all. Things like technique, calmness of mind, experience, and even luck will all play a part in the result. But strength, speed, and endurance are all quantifiable factors that should be part of your thought process when placing a bet.
As always with MMA, which attributes will be most important depends on how the fight plays out. A grind-it-out clinching and grappling match will favor the stronger athlete. Conversely, speed will be more critical when two competitors choose to fight standing up, as it is required to move into range and land punches or kicks. And of course, no matter which style of fight takes place, if the match goes longer than one round, endurance will be a pivotal factor.
A sound mixed martial arts promoter will typically book fights between opponents that are evenly matched. With equal levels of experience and skill, the difference in a contest will be determined by strength and conditioning.
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